000 AXNT20 KNHC 012348 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST SAT FEB 01 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 06N10W TO 03N20W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 03N20W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 30W THEN TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 03N41W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WELL SOUTH OF THE COAST OF AFRICA FROM 01N-05N BETWEEN 03W-15W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 03S BETWEEN 31W-34W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES VERY DRY AIR AND OVERALL SUBSIDENCE PREVAILS OVER MUCH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS EVENING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING OUT OF MEXICO AND OVER THE GULF W OF 92W. OVERALL MODERATE TO STRONG UPPER LEVEL WSW FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE BASIN WITH NWP MODEL WINDS OF 80-100 KT OVER THE FAR NW GULF...TEXAS AND LOUISIANA. AT THE SURFACE A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE BIG BEND REGION OF FLORIDA NEAR 29N83W TO THE E GULF NEAR 26N86W. AS SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR WORKS EASTWARD IN THE GULF...SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT HAS DISSIPATED OVER THE GULF WITH ONLY LOW CLOUDS REMAINING.LOCALLY ENHANCED SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE OVER FLORIDA HAS RESULTED IN LINES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE BETWEEN LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND JACKSONVILLE. OTHERWISE...S-SE WINDS GENERALLY PREVAIL W OF 85W WITH THE STRONGEST SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW NOTED W OF 93W. THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL UNTIL MON MORNING AS A COLD FRONT IS SLATED TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS. THE FRONT WILL MOVE SE AND EXTEND FROM SE LOUISIANA TO NE MEXICO BY EARLY TUE AND USHER IN FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 12N78W THAT INFLUENCES MUCH OF THE BASIN THIS EVENING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE FLOW ALOFT REMAINS VERY DRY AND STABLE RESULTING IN OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AT THE SURFACE. THE ONLY RELATIVELY SIGNIFICANT ACTIVE WEATHER IS AREAS OF CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED ISOLATED SHOWERS ADVECTING WESTWARD WITHIN TRADE WIND FLOW FROM 14N-20N BETWEEN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND PORTIONS OF INLAND CENTRAL AMERICA. OTHERWISE...THE TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST IN THE GENERAL RANGE OF 15 TO 25 KT...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS...UP TO 30 KT LOCALLY ARE EXPECTED IN THE VICINITY OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. ...HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY SCATTERED LOW TOPPED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS BOTH HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT WESTWARD ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA...INCLUDING THE ADJACENT SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS N OF 15N. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY SHALLOW AS UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE INFLUENCES THE CARIBBEAN BASIN THROUGH TUE. THE 12Z SAN JUAN RAWINSONDE SHOWED A WEAK CAPPING INVERSION AT 840 MB REFLECTING THE SHALLOW NATURE OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A WEAK SHEARING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY MOVING OFF THE COAST OF NE FLORIDA. THIS TROUGH WAS WEAKENING IN THE FACE OF A BROADER AREA OF WEST- SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AT THE PERIPHERY OF A LARGE ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THE TROUGH SUPPORTED A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT AT THE SURFACE EXTENDING FROM 31N80W TO THE GEORGIA-FLORIDA BORDER. RELATIVELY MOIST S-SE FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN EXPANSIVE SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A PAIR OF 1028 MB HIGHS CENTERED NEAR 32N32W AND 32N57W. THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT FEATURE E OF 60W IS A CUT-OFF MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 19N51W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW E OF THE LOW CAPPING A RIDGE AXIS ALONG 35W IS PRODUCING AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF MID AND HIGH LAYERED CLOUDS FROM 08N-23N BETWEEN 35W-54W WITH POSSIBLE EMBEDDED SHOWERS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ COBB