000 AXNT20 KNHC 011744 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST SAT FEB 01 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA GENERATING GALE FORCE WINDS FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 73W-78W. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 05N09W TO 05N16W TO 03N20W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 03N20W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 26W THEN ALONG THE EQUATOR TO 37W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 01N-06N BETWEEN 03W-15W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 03N BETWEEN 23W-27W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES VERY DRY AIR AND OVERALL SUBSIDENCE PREVAILS OVER MUCH OF THE GULF BASIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH ENERGY FOCUSED OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 28N82W. THIS ENERGY IS SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT ANALYZED FROM 25N86W NE TO THE BIG BEND REGION OF FLORIDA NEAR 29N83W TO JACKSONVILLE AND INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC WATERS. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH THE MID- LEVEL LIFT GENERATED BY THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS PRODUCING ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF 26N E OF 84W...INCLUDING PORTIONS OF INLAND FLORIDA N OF 27N. OTHERWISE...S-SE WINDS GENERALLY PREVAIL W OF 86W WITH THE STRONGEST SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW NOTED W OF 95W. THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO INFLUENCE THE BASIN THROUGH LATE SUNDAY WHEN THEREAFTER A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY USHERING IN ANOTHER BRIEF ROUND OF N-NE WINDS. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 12N78W THAT INFLUENCES MUCH OF THE BASIN THIS AFTERNOON. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE FLOW ALOFT REMAINS VERY DRY AND STABLE RESULTING IN OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AT THE SURFACE. THE ONLY RELATIVELY SIGNIFICANT ACTIVE WEATHER IS AREAS OF CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED ISOLATED SHOWERS ADVECTING WESTWARD WITHIN TRADE WIND FLOW FROM 14N-20N BETWEEN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND PORTIONS OF INLAND CENTRAL AMERICA. OTHERWISE...THE TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST IN THE GENERAL RANGE OF 15 TO 25 KT...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED IN THE VICINITY OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. ...HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND E OF 72W AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT WESTWARD ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA...INCLUDING THE ADJACENT SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS N OF 15N. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY SHALLOW AS AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE INFLUENCES THE CARIBBEAN SEA BASIN THIS AFTERNOON. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WITH ENERGY CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA EMBEDDED WITHIN WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ENERGY AND OVERALL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT ANALYZED FROM JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA NE TO BEYOND 32N77W. RELATIVELY MOIST S-SE FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1032 MB HIGH CENTERED ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N45W. THIS SURFACE RIDGING INFLUENCES MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC AS WELL THIS AFTERNOON. THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT FEATURE E OF 60W IS A CUT-OFF MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 18N51W THAT IS PROVIDING POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 07N-22N BETWEEN 43W-58W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN