000 AXNT20 KNHC 011148 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST SAT FEB 01 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... GALE FORCE WINDS IN EFFECT FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 73W AND 78W. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE MID-MORNING HOURS ON SAT. SEAS ARE FORECAST FROM 11 TO 14 FT. PLEASE SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 10N14W AND CONTINUES TO 4N19W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 3N20W AND CONTINUES ALONG 1N34W THEN INTO SOUTH AMERICA S OF THE EQUATOR ALONG 45W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 200 NM SOUTH OF THE ITCZ AND 60 NM NORTH OF IT. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES ACROSS THE GULF ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH LOCATED OVER NE NORTH CAROLINA NEAR 36N77W. IN THE MIDDLE LEVELS...A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE EASTERN GULF TO THE SW NORTH ATLC WHICH IS SUPPORTING A WEAKNESS IN THE SURFACE RIDGE WHERE A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ALONG 29N81W TO 27N82W AND THEN TRANSITIONS TO A SURFACE TROUGH TO 24N84W TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N86W. MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE SCATTERED SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE SURFACE TROUGH EAST OF 85W AND STREAMING NORTHWARD-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH AREAS OF FOG COVERS THIS REGION AND EXTEND INLAND FLORIDA. WATER VAPOR AND SSMI TPW IMAGERY DEPICT DRY AIR IN THE MIDDLE TO LOWER LEVELS WHICH SUPPORTS FAIR WEATHER ELSEWHERE IN THE GULF. NWP MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD OVER FLORIDA TODAY WHERE IT IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO A COLD FRONT. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN GULF SPREADS OVER THE ENTIRE GULF BY EARLY SUN. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS SUN AFTERNOON. CARIBBEAN SEA... A BROAD ANTICYCLONE ANCHORED IN THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 12N77W DOMINATES THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN. ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS NE ACROSS CUBA AND HISPANIOLA INTO THE W/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 35N60W. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW VERY DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE BASIN WHICH IS HINDERING DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION. HOWEVER...THE SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW MODERATE MOIST ADVECTION INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN AS WELL AS ANOTHER MODERATE MOIST AIRMASS ACROSS THE NORTHERN CENTRAL TO EASTERN CARIBBEAN. THIS MOISTURE SUPPLY ALONG WITH TRADEWINDS OF 15-20 KT ARE ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO AND SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS OF HISPANIOLA. RAINSHOWERS ARE ALSO ALONG THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA AND BELIZE ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE SE GULF OF MEXICO. THESE SHOWERS EXTENDS WITHIN 120 NM OFF THESE COASTLINES. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH GALE FORCE WINDS OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR DETAILS. A GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZE FROM THE TRADES IS ELSEWHERE. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE THIS MORNING. ...HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY CONDITIONS REMAIN FAIRLY TRANQUIL ACROSS THE ISLAND BEING SUPPORTED BY DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS. HOWEVER...A MODERATE MOIST AIRMASS IS CROSSING THE NORTHERN CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN BASIN AND IS ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE MONA PASSAGE...EASTERN HISPANIOLA AND SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS. ALTHOUGH THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN THROUGH MON...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS THE ISLAND TODAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WHICH MAY ENHANCE SHOWERS AND TSTMS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE EASTERN GULF TO THE SW NORTH ATLC WHICH IS SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS ALONG 30N80W SW TO NE FLORIDA NEAR 29N81W...ACROSS NORTH- CENTRAL FLORIDA TO TAMPA. MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 27N W OF 77W. A BROAD RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB HIGH NEAR 31N38W. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY FURTHER NORTH TODAY WHERE IT IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO A COLD FRONT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ NR