000 AXNT20 KNHC 010558 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST SAT FEB 01 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... GALE FORCE WINDS IN EFFECT FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 71W AND 78W. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE MID-MORNING HOURS ON SAT. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD FROM 9 TO 14 FT. PLEASE SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 10N14W AND CONTINUES TO 4N19W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 3N20W AND CONTINUES ALONG 1N34W THEN INTO SOUTH AMERICA S OF THE EQUATOR ALONG 45W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 200 NM SOUTH OF THE ITCZ AND 60 NM NORTH OF IT. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES ACROSS THE GULF ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH LOCATED OVER NORTH CAROLINA NEAR 36N77W. IN THE MIDDLE LEVELS...A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL GULF TO THE SW NORTH ATLC WHICH IS GENERATING A WEAKNESS IN THE SURFACE RIDGE WHERE A WARM FRONT EXTENDS ALONG 28N80W TO 27N82W TO 25N85W. MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE SCATTERED SHOWERS COVERING THE GULF S OF 28N E OF 85W STREAMING NORTHWARD-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF AND FLORIDA PENINSULA. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH AREAS OF FOG COVERS THIS REGION AND EXTEND INLAND ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. WATER VAPOR AND SSMI TPW IMAGERY DEPICT DRY AIR IN THE MIDDLE TO LOWER LEVELS WHICH SUPPORTS FAIR WEATHER ELSEWHERE IN THE GULF. NWP MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD OVER FLORIDA TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN GULF SPREADS OVER THE ENTIRE GULF BY LATE SAT. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS SUN AFTERNOON. CARIBBEAN SEA... A BROAD ANTICYCLONE ANCHORED IN THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 12N78W DOMINATES THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN. ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS NE ACROSS HISPANIOLA INTO THE W/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 30N60W. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW VERY DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE BASIN WHICH IS HINDERING DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION. HOWEVER...THE SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW MODERATE MOIST ADVECTION INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN AS WELL AS ANOTHER MODERATE MOIST AIRMASS ENTERING THE NE CARIBBEAN. THIS MOISTURE SUPPLY ALONG WITH TRADEWINDS OF 15-20 KT ARE ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE LEEWARD...VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO AND SE COASTAL WATERS OF HISPANIOLA. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH GALE FORCE WINDS OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR DETAILS. A GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZE FROM THE TRADES IS ELSEWHERE. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE LATE SAT MORNING. ...HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY CONDITIONS REMAIN FAIRLY TRANQUIL ACROSS THE ISLAND BEING SUPPORTED BY DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS. HOWEVER...A MODERATE MOIST AIRMASS IS CROSSING THE NE CARIBBEAN BASIN AND IS ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE MONA PASSAGE AND SE HISPANIOLA COASTAL WATERS. ALTHOUGH THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN THROUGH MON...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS THE ISLAND FROM SAT MORNING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WHICH MAY ENHANCE SHOWERS AND TSTMS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL GULF TO THE SW NORTH ATLC TO SUPPORT A WARM FRONT THAT EXTENDS ALONG 30N78W SW TO EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR 28N80W AND THEN INTO THE EASTERN GULF. MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 28N W OF 78W. A BROAD RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1033 MB HIGH NEAR 32N35W. THE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NW INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA BY EARLY SAT WHERE IT IS EXPECTED TO STALL THROUGH SUN MORNING. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ RAMOS