000 AXNT20 KNHC 312358 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST FRI JAN 31 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 72W AND 78W. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO GALE FORCE TONIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH THE MID-MORNING HOURS ON SAT. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO 9 TO 14 FT. PLEASE SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 9N13W AND CONTINUES TO 4N19W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 2N25W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR ALONG 37W INTO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA ALONG 46W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION EXTENDS FROM THE EQUATOR TO THE COAST OF SW AFRICA WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE PRIME MERIDIAN. WIDELY SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION WERE NOTED S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 30W-42W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A WEAK SHEARING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE SSW TO A SMALL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 25N86W. THE TROUGH WAS SHEARING OUT TO THE NE AS IT RIDES OVER AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE OVER THE SW N ATLC. BROAD WSW FLOW ALOFT COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE NOTED. AT THE SURFACE...AS OF 2100 UTC A WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE FLORIDA COAST NEAR NAPLES TO 25N86W. MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVERING THE GULF S OF 28N E OF 84W STREAMING NORTHWARD ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST NEAR FORT MYERS. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH AREAS OF FOG AND RAIN COVERED THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF E OF 86W AND NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA. A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH OVER GEORGIA PREVAILED ELSEWHERE OVER THE GULF. NWP MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD OVER FLORIDA TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE NW GULF WILL SPREAD OVER THE ENTIRE GULF BY LATE SAT. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE TEXAS COAST LATE SUN. THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA TO BROWNSVILLE TEXAS BY LATE SUN. CARIBBEAN SEA... EXPANSIVE ANTICYCLONE ANCHORED IN THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 12N79W DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN W OF 65W. ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS NE ACROSS HISPANIOLA INTO THE W/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 30N60W. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW VERY DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE BASIN. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 20N87W ACROSS BELIZE TO THE WESTERN GULF OF HONDURAS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM W OF THE TROUGH AND BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS W OF A LINE FROM HAVANA CUBA SOUTHWARD TO THE COAST OF HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE IN THE E AND S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH GALE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED TO COMMENCE SHORTLY OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. THESE TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING ISOLATED LOW TOPPED SHOWERS N OF 14N TO THE GREATER ANTILLES BETWEEN 70W-84W. ...HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY CONDITIONS REMAIN FAIRLY TRANQUIL ACROSS HAITI WITH SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS POPPING UP OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN THROUGH SUN THEN SHIFT W THROUGH WED. FAIR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE ISLAND SAT AND SUN WHEN AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL THEN SPREAD FROM E TO W ACROSS THE ISLAND INCREASING THE CHANCES OF MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVER TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS IS WELL N OF THE AREA EXTENDING FROM 35N60W TO THE COAST OF NC. AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS NORTHWARD OVER THE SW N ATLC THROUGH 30N60W. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH...POSSIBLY AN EXTENSION OF THE SHEAR AXIS NOTED ABOVE IS RIDING NE OVER THE RIDGE AND WEAKENING IN THE PROCESS. FURTHER E...A SHARP TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A COL NEAR 27N37W THROUGH A CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS NEAR 27N45W AND 17N53W TO A BASE NEAR 10N55W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WAS NOTED WITHIN THE TROUGH EXCEPT FOR A PATCH OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE BETWEEN THE TWO CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS. AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE WAS NOTED E OF THE TROUGH WITH AXIS ALONG 30W. AT THE SURFACE...A WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM 32N76W TO THE FLORIDA EAST COAST NEAR VERO BEACH AND WESTWARD TO NEAR NAPLES. OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH AREAS OF RAIN AND EMBEDDED SHOWERS WERE NW OF THE FRONT OVER NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA AND THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS. A BROAD RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1032 MB HIGH NEAR 32N39W. THE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NW INTO THE FAR NW PORTIONS OF THE DISCUSSION AREA BY EARLY SAT AND N OF THE AREA BY SAT EVENING. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ COBB