000 AXNT20 KNHC 311725 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST FRI JAN 31 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1645 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W. THESE WINDS WILL PULSE TO GALE FORCE TODAY AND SAT MAINLY DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. PLEASE SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 7N12W AND CONTINUES TO 4N19W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 1N27W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR INTO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 34W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 2N TO INLAND OVER SW AFRICA E OF 2W ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN 10W-15W AND FROM 2N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 30W-42W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC WITH A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM GEORGIA INTO THE NE GULF TO 26N86W. A REMNANT STATIONARY FRONT IS BEGINNING TO DRIFT N AND AT 31/1500 UTC EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC OVER FLORIDA NEAR EVERGLADES CITY TO KEY WEST TO N OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 22N86W. MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE SCATTERED TO HEAVY SHOWERS COVERING THE E GULF S OF 28N E OF 85W TO OVER FLORIDA AND N OF THE FRONT WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE S OF THE FRONT W OF KEY WEST. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE GULF ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH OVER GEORGIA. FRONT WILL WEAKEN BEFORE THE REMNANTS BEGIN TO SHIFT NW LATER TODAY THROUGH SAT. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE NW GULF WILL SPREAD OVER THE ENTIRE GULF BY LATE SAT. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE TEXAS COAST LATE SUN. THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM MOBILE ALABAMA TO NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO BY MON WHERE IT WILL STALL THEN WILL DRIFT NW AND INLAND LATE MON. CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED IN THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 12N78W AND EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS NE ACROSS HISPANIOLA INTO THE W/CENTRAL ATLC. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW VERY DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE BASIN. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 21N86W TO JUST OFF THE COAST OF HONDURAS NEAR 16N87W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM W OF THE TROUGH AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS W OF LINE FROM CUBA NEAR 22N83W TO 20N86W. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE IN THE E AND S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH TUE WITH STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA REACHING MINIMAL GALES DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TODAY AND SAT. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. THESE TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS N OF 14N TO THE GREATER ANTILLES BETWEEN 70W-84W. ...HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY CONDITIONS REMAIN FAIRLY TRANQUIL ACROSS HAITI WITH SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS POPPING UP OVER EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN THROUGH SUN THEN SHIFT W THROUGH WED. FAIR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE ISLAND TODAY AND SUN WHEN AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL THEN SPREAD FROM E TO W ACROSS THE ISLAND INCREASING THE CHANCES OF MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS THROUGH WED. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE FAR W ATLC FROM NEW ENGLAND TO THE GEORGIA COAST SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA AND A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH 32N78W TO 28N80W. THE REMNANT STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS ACROSS THE W ATLC ENTERING NEAR 32N71W TO 29N76W WHERE A WEAK FRONTAL WAVE EXTENDS ACROSS S FLORIDA BETWEEN VERO BEACH AND EVERGLADES CITY THEN CONTINUING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED TO HEAVY SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 150 NM NW OF THE FRONT WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 45 NM SE OF THE FRONT. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS OVER THE W AND CENTRAL ATLC WITH THE AXIS ACROSS HISPANIOLA ALONG 26N63W TO BEYOND 32N50W. AN ELONGATED UPPER LOW COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH THE AXIS ALONG 28N38W THROUGH 23N48W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 7N59W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1033 MB HIGH NEAR 33N39W. FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT NW AND MERGE WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH LATER TODAY. THE MERGED BOUNDARY WILL MOVE NW OF THE AREA BY SAT MORNING. BROAD THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW