000 AXNT20 KNHC 302355 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST THU JAN 30 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP GALE FORCE E-NE WINDS BEGINNING AT 31/0600 UTC FROM 11N- 14N BETWEEN 73W-77W. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 08N13W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 22W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N- 06N BETWEEN 08W-19W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN GULF WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM OVER MOBILE BAY NEAR 30N88W S-SW TO A BASE OVER THE SW GULF WATERS NEAR 20N94W. THE TROUGHING SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT ANALYZED FROM THE FLORIDA STRAITS NEAR 25N80W W-SW TO 23N88W THEN SW TO 19N91W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY NORTH OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH PLENTIFUL MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LIFTING DYNAMICS EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS OVER THE EASTERN GULF IS GENERATING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AND AREAS S OF 28N E OF 90W. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF W OF 90W IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A RIDGE AXIS ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH CENTERED ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL ALABAMA NEAR 33N85W. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUASI- STATIONARY ACROSS THE SE CONUS THROUGH LATE FRIDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS TO THE WEST ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW IS EXPECTED TO RE-ESTABLISH ACROSS THE NW GULF OVERNIGHT AND BECOME THE DOMINATE FLOW PATTERN BY EARLY SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THEREAFTER...THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS LATE SUNDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ALONG WITH A VERY DRY AND SUBSIDENT AIR ALOFT ARE PROVIDING OVERALL STABLE CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING. THE MOST NOTABLE AREA OF LOW- LEVEL MOISTURE IS ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN IN THE VICINITY OF A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 17N86W TO 22N87W. E-SE WINDS EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS CONTINUE TO ADVECT THE MOISTURE TOWARDS A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SE GULF OF MEXICO. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING N OF 14N W OF 82W. OTHERWISE...TRADES PERSIST WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED BETWEEN 65W-80W THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO FRIDAY WITH GALE FORCE WINDS DEVELOPING BY 31/0600 UTC FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 73W-77W. ...HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND DRY AIR ALOFT IS MAINTAINING OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS EVENING. E-SE TRADES WILL PERSIST AND THIS OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS FORECAST FOR HISPANIOLA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED SHOWERS OVERNIGHT REMAINS DUE TO ADVECTION OF LOW- LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN. ATLANTIC OCEAN... SOUTHWESTERLY MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC BETWEEN A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM OVER THE SE CONUS TO OVER THE SW GULF OF MEXICO AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA EXTENDING AN AXIS FROM 17N74W NE TO BEYOND 32N58W. THE TROUGHING SUPPORTS A WARM FRONT FROM 32N71W SW TO GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND NEAR 27N79W THEN CONTINUES SW AS A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND INTO THE SE GULF OF MEXICO. MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS OCCURRING NW OF A LINE FROM 30N70W TO 23N80W...INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH WEAK TROUGHING FORECAST TO PERSIST ACROSS THE NW PORTION OF THE SW NORTH ATLC THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1033 MB HIGH CENTERED SW OF THE AZORES NEAR 34N37W. THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE HIGH SW TO NEAR 26N73W. THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT FEATURE ALOFT E OF 60W IS A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW CENTERED NEAR 21N46W. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO ADVECT TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 06N-22N BETWEEN 30W-50W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN