000 AXNT20 KNHC 301745 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST THU JAN 30 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 13.5N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W. THESE WINDS WILL PULSE TO GALE FORCE TODAY...FRI...AND SAT MAINLY DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. PLEASE SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 7N12W AND CONTINUES ALONG 4N19W TO 1N22W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES S OF THE EQUATOR INTO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 24W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-6N E OF THE MONSOON TROUGH TO BEYOND THE PRIME MERIDIAN. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE SE CONUS INTO THE W GULF NEAR NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA TO TAMPICO MEXICO. THE REMNANT STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 25N80W ALONG 23N86W TO INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN NEAR MERIDA. AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN INTO THE W ATLC IS PROVIDING DIFFLUNCE ALOFT ACROSS THE E GULF WATERS. MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE SCATTERED TO HEAVY SHOWERS COVERING THE GULF W OF THE FRONT TO A LINE FROM CEDAR KEY FLORIDA ALONG 26N91W 24N92W TO MEXICO NEAR CIUDAD DEL CARMEN. A SURFACE RIDGE IS BUILDING S OVER THE GULF ANCHORED BY A 1032 MB HIGH JUST E OF WASHINGTON DC. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN THROUGH EARLY FRI BEFORE THE REMNANTS BEGIN TO SHIFT NW FRI AND SAT. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE TEXAS COAST FRI AND SPREAD OVER THE ENTIRE GULF SAT. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE TEXAS COAST LATE SUN. CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED IN THE E PACIFIC REGION AND EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS ACROSS CENTRAL PANAMA TO ACROSS HISPANIOLA INTO THE W ATLC. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW VERY DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE BASIN WITH THE DRIEST AIR OFF THE COAST OF VENEZUELA. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH HAS DEVELOPED AT 30/1500 UTC IN THE NW CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM 22N85W TO JUST OFF THE COAST OF HONDURAS NEAR 16N85W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE IN THE E AND S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH SUN WITH STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA REACHING MINIMAL GALES DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH SAT. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. THESE TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS WITHIN 75/90 NM OF LINE FROM 18N79W TO OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS NEAR TRINIDAD/TOBAGO. ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM THE FRONT IN THE SE GULF OF MEXICO COULD MOVE ACROSS W CUBA AND THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN THROUGH FRI. ...HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY SKIES REMAIN RATHER TRANQUIL ACROSS THE ISLAND. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN THROUGH SUN MAINTAINING FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ISLAND. HOWEVER THE TRADE WINDS COULD USHER IN SOME ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS WITH MOISTURE INCREASING ON SUN. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE REMNANT STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS ACROSS THE W ATLC ENTERING NEAR 32N68W TO 28N74W WHERE A WEAK FRONTAL WAVE EXTENDS ACROSS THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS THEN RETURNS TO STATIONARY AS IT ENTERS THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 25N80W. SCATTERED TO HEAVY SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180/225 NM NW OF THE FRONT. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC WITH THE AXIS ACROSS HISPANIOLA TO BEYOND 32N57W. A LARGE UPPER LOW COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC CENTERED NEAR 20N49W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 16N- 22N BETWEEN 43W-50W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1035 MB HIGH NEAR 34N37W. THE FRONT WILL RETROGRADE NW TODAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT N OF THE BAHAMAS AND MOVES SLOWLY NE THROUGH THU NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE FROM 31N69W TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS BY EARLY FRI. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD ALONG 30N OVER THE WEEKEND. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW