000 AXNT20 KNHC 301106 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST THU JAN 30 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... ...CARIBBEAN SEA GALE WARNING... NORTHEAST-TO-EAST GALE-FORCE WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS 10 TO 14 FEET ARE BEING EXPERIENCED IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 11N TO 13.5N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST... MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST... MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. ...OTHER MARINE CONDITIONS IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA... EXPECT NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 11 FEET FROM 10.5N TO 17N TO THE EAST OF 79W. EXPECT ALSO WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET IN THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 10N TO 17N BETWEEN 79W AND 81.5W. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL AREAS OF GUINEA- BISSAU NEAR 12N16W...TO 9N16W...CURVING TO 2N20W...AND TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 23W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM FROM THE EQUATOR ALONG 23W TO 2S28W 3S33W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 4N TO 6N BETWEEN 8W AND 11W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN INDIVIDUAL CELLS FROM 1N TO 4N TO THE EAST OF 10W...AND FROM 2N TO 5N BETWEEN 14W AND 18W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG FROM 2S TO 4N BETWEEN 21W AND 30W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG ALONG THE COAST OF BRAZIL FROM 5S TO 7S BETWEEN 33W AND 36W. ...DISCUSSION... ...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF BERMUDA...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...INCLUDING THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS DIGGING ALONG THE COASTS OF TEXAS AND MEXICO...IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE NORTHERLY WIND FLOW STILL IS MOSTLY INLAND ACROSS THE U.S.A. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW SPANS THE GULF OF MEXICO. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE EAST OF 30N88W 24N95W 21N97W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND RAINSHOWERS ARE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N53W 29N60W 27N70W 23N80W AT THE COAST OF CUBA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE EAST OF 87W. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N66W TO THE GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND IN THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS...THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS...TOUCHING THE GULF OF MEXICO SIDE OF WESTERN CUBA NEAR 23N84W...TO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO 19N90W. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE BLOWING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM SOUTH CENTRAL COASTAL LOUISIANA...TO THE UPPER TEXAS GULF COAST...TO THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS...ALONG THE MEXICO COAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...INTO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 87W/88W... LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE FOLLOWING ICAO STATIONS...KMZG...KBBF...KBQX...CLEARING SKIES AT KVAF... KGUL...KHQI...KGBK...KEIR...KSPR...KATP...KMYT...KIPN...AND KMDJ. FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM TEXAS TO FLORIDA... LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE TEXAS COAST FROM THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA SOUTHWARD...NOT INCLUDING GALVESTON AND THE BEAUMONT-PORT ARTHUR AREA. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER FLORIDA FROM THE PANAMA CITY METROPOLITAN AREA TO MARIANNA...TO APALACHICOLA TO TALLAHASSEE AND PERRY...AND INTERIOR SECTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA...TO BROOKSVILLE AND THE TAMPA METROPOLITAN AREA WITH RAIN...CONTINUING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA COAST TO THE FLORIDA KEYS...LOW CLOUDS AND RAIN. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...A WEAKENING COLD FRONT FROM 25N80W TO 21N90W. EXPECT NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS 20 TO 30 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 10 TO 14 FEET WITHIN 90 NM OF COAST BETWEEN 94W AND 97W. EXPECT NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 10 TO 13 FEET WITHIN 180 NM TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE FRONT TO THE WEST OF 82W...AND ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 22N BETWEEN 90W AND 94W. EXPECT ALSO WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 12 FEET ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 83W. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... MIDDLE LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW ENTERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA... AND IT COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE EAST OF 75W. THIS WIND FLOW IS RELATED TO THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN 18N48W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. MIDDLE LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE WEST OF THE NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE MOVING THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN SEA... COVERING MOST OF THE AREAS. THE MONSOON TROUGH CURVES FROM 7N77W IN COLOMBIA TO 3N80W AND BEYOND 3N84W INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE DIRECTLY RELATED TO THE MONSOON TROUGH...IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. ...HISPANIOLA... A MIDDLE LEVEL NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED RIDGE CUTS DIRECTLY ACROSS HISPANIOLA FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...AS DEPICTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...COVERS HISPANIOLA. BROKEN LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 30N BETWEEN 60W AND 73W...MOVING WESTWARD. SKY CONDITIONS AND CURRENT WEATHER FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC... SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS IN SANTO DOMINGO...PUNTA CANA...AND IN SANTIAGO. FEW LOW CLOUDS COVER PUERTO PLATA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT WESTERLY AND NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA WITH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE. THE FORECAST POSITION OF THE RIDGE IS FROM 30N60W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...DIRECTLY ACROSS HISPANIOLA...TO PANAMA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT HISPANIOLA WILL BE DIRECTLY IN A RIDGE...WITH NORTHEASTERLY- TO-EASTERLY WIND FLOW. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT EAST-TO-SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA. ...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 18N48W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 13N58W TO 13N73W. CLOUDS AND CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 14N TO 26N BETWEEN 40W AND 52W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WITH A RIDGE...AND MOISTURE...COVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 27N TO THE EAST OF THE LINE 9N59W 13N44W 27N36W BEYOND 24N20W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND AFRICA TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE EAST OF 20W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1033 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 35N36W..THROUGH 32N45W TO 30N54W...TOWARD SOUTHEASTERN CUBA. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 10N TO THE EAST OF THE 32N66W 27N78W COLD FRONT. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 9 TO 13 FEET FROM 16N TO 26N TO THE EAST OF 47W. EXPECT ALSO WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 11 FEET ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF THE LINE FROM 31N37W TO 22N72W TO 20N72W...EXCEPT TO THE SOUTH OF 10N TO THE EAST OF 50W. A SECOND AREA OF CONCERN CONSISTS OF A COLD FRONT FROM 31N69W TO 27N77W TO 25N80W. EXPECT WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET TO THE WEST OF THE COLD FRONT TO 78W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT