000 AXNT20 KNHC 292358 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST WED JAN 29 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE SE GULF OF MEXICO THIS EVENING. GALE FORCE N-NW WINDS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FAR WESTERN GULF S OF 22N WEST OF THE FRONT. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN WITH GALE FORCE E-NE WINDS BEGINNING BY 30/0600 UTC FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 74W-77W. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 10N15W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 25W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 03N BETWEEN 19W-25W...AND FROM THE EQUATOR TO 10N BETWEEN 29W-47W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATE A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN PLAINS AND NORTHERN MEXICO WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY SW TO 22N104W AND INTO THE EAST PACIFIC REGION. THIS TROUGHING SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT ANALYZED AT 29/2100 UTC FROM THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 26N82W SW TO 21N91W THEN SOUTH TO THE MEXICO COAST NEAR 19N92W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY NORTH OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH AMPLE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LIFTING DYNAMICS EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS OVER MUCH OF THE GULF BASIN IS GENERATING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS THE STATE OF FLORIDA THIS EVENING STRETCHING NE ACROSS SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION IS SE OF A LINE FROM NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA SW TO THE MEXICO COAST NEAR 22N98W. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF NORTH OF THE FRONT IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1034 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER LOUISIANA NEAR 31N93W. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE SE CONUS DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS WITH STRONG NORTHEASTERLY WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY AS SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ALONG WITH A VERY DRY AND SUBSIDENT AIR ALOFT ARE PROVIDING OVERALL STABLE CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING. THE MOST NOTABLE AREA OF LOW- LEVEL MOISTURE IS ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 15N W OF 76W AS E- SE WINDS ADVECT THE MOISTURE TOWARDS A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SE GULF OF MEXICO. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THIS AREA. OTHERWISE...TRADES PERSIST WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED E OF 80W THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO WEDNESDAY WITH GALE FORCE WINDS DEVELOPING BY 30/0600 UTC FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 74W-77W. ...HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND DRY AIR ALOFT IS MAINTAINING OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS EVENING. E-SE TRADES WILL PERSIST AND THIS OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS FORECAST FOR HISPANIOLA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... SOUTHWESTERLY MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC BETWEEN A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA EXTENDING AN AXIS FROM 17N77W N-NE TO BEYOND 32N63W. THE TROUGHING SUPPORTS A 1012 MB LOW CENTERED OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST NEAR 33N76W WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SW FROM THE LOW CENTER TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA COAST NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL AND INTO THE SE GULF OF MEXICO. MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS OCCURRING N OF 26N W OF 72W THIS EVENING. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE E-NE DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS WITH WEAK TROUGHING FORECAST TO PERSIST ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1034 MB HIGH CENTERED SW OF THE AZORES NEAR 36N38W. THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE HIGH SW TO THE SE BAHAMAS NEAR 23N75W. THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT FEATURE ALOFT E OF 60W IS A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW CENTERED NEAR 20N45W. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO ADVECT TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 05N-23N BETWEEN 28W-48W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN