000 AXNT20 KNHC 291749 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST WED JAN 29 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT S OF 25N W OF 95W THROUGH THIS EVENING. THESE GALE WINDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO. PLEASE SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. A GALE WARNING IS EXPECTED IN THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W LATE TONIGHT THEN NARROWING TO WITH 90 NM ALONG THE COAST COLOMBIA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF THU... FRI...AND SAT. PLEASE SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 11N15W AND CONTINUES ALONG 3N18W TO 00N27W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES S OF THE EQUATOR INTO SOUTH AMERICA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 30W-45W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHERN PLAIN STATES CONTINUING S OVER MEXICO SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE GULF ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR NAPLES AND CONTINUES ALONG 24N87W TO 20N93W TO S OF MEXICO NEAR 18N94W. AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN INTO THE W ATLC IS PROVIDING DIFFLUNCE ALOFT ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVERING THE GULF W OF THE FRONT AND WITHIN 60 NM S OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE FAR SOUTH PORTION BY THU NIGHT. SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE TEXAS COAST FRI AND SPREADS OVER THE ENTIRE GULF SAT. CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED IN THE E PACIFIC REGION AND EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS ACROSS W PANAMA TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE INTO THE W ATLC. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW VERY DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE BASIN. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE IN THE E AND S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH FRI WITH MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. THESE TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING SCATTERED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM 20N84W TO OVER PANAMA NEAR 9N82W AND ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM 19N80W TO THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR MARTINIQUE. THE GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT WILL STALL AND DISSIPATE OVER THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN THU NIGHT. ...HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN IS MAINTAINING FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ISLAND WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS ALONG THE FAR S COAST GENERATED BY THE TRADE WINDS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRI. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CONUS DISCUSSED IN THE GULF OF MEXICO SECTION IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE W ATLC NEAR 32N73W AND CONTINUES ALONG 29N77W TO ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR WEST PALM BEACH. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 300 NM W OF THE FRONT AND WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE FRONT W OF 77W. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC WITH THE AXIS ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO BEYOND BERMUDA. A LARGE UPPER LOW COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC CENTERED NEAR 19N45W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 18N- 23N BETWEEN 41W-47W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1036 MB HIGH NEAR 36N38W. THE COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM 31N70W TO SOUTH FLORIDA THIS EVENING THEN RETROGRADE NW TONIGHT AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT N OF THE BAHAMAS AND MOVES SLOWLY NE THROUGH THU NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE FROM 31N69W TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS BY LATE FRI. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW