000 AXNT20 KNHC 291106 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST WED JAN 29 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO NOW. A COLD FRONT FROM 28N82W TO 22N94W TO 19N96W. WITHIN 90 NM OF COAST N OF FRONT TO 25N NW TO N WINDS 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 10 TO 15 FT. ELSEWHERE N OF FRONT W OF 85W N TO NE WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT IN NE SWELL. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. THE 24-HOUR FORECAST FOR THE CARIBBEAN SEA IS FOR EASTERLY GALE- FORCE WINDS FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 76W. SEAS 10 TO 14 FT IN NE SWELL. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC... AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL AREAS OF GUINEA NEAR 9N13W...TO 8N16W AND 5N18W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 5N18W TO 2N22W AND TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 31W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 3N TO 4N BETWEEN 11W AND 13W...FROM 1N TO 2N BETWEEN 17W AND 20W...FROM THE EQUATOR TO 4N BETWEEN 29W AND 50W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 2N TO 4N BETWEEN 1W AND 4W. ...DISCUSSION... ...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF 70W...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...INCLUDING THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW SPANS THE GULF OF MEXICO. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS MUCH OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE WEST OF 64W. THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WAS ACCOMPANYING THE CURRENT FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS MOVED OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 33N76W...ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR 28N82W...TO 24N90W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO 19N96W ALONG THE MEXICO COAST IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO... AND 20N98W INLAND IN MEXICO. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES IN MEXICO FROM 20N98W TO 25N102W AND BEYOND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO. CLOUDS AND CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION COVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE COMPARATIVELY GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF RAIN MAY BE TO THE NORTH OF 24N TO THE WEST OF 87W. RAINSHOWERS ARE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...FROM MIAMI TO THE FLORIDA KEYS TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 30N TO 31N BETWEEN 75W AND 78W. OTHER CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N71W TO 27N80W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 29/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLE... MIATPTPAN/ SXCA01 KNHC...WAS 0.17 IN BERMUDA...AND 0.51 INCHES FOR 28/1200 UTC. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 87W/88W...LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED ACROSS THE AREA. VISIBILITIES OF 2 MILES OR LESS WITH FOG ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE ICAO STATIONS KMYT AND KATP. FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM TEXAS TO FLORIDA... MIDDLE LEVEL AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE PREDOMINANT FROM THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF TEXAS TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS AND RAIN ARE MIXED WITH THE HIGHER CEILINGS...SUCH AS IN THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE FROM PERRY WESTWARD. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER FLORIDA FROM BROOKSVILLE TO THE TAMPA METROPOLITAN AREA. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES OF 3 MILES OR LESS WITH FOG COVER SARASOTA. VISIBILITIES OF 1 MILE OR LESS WITH FOG ARE BEING OBSERVED FROM PUNTA GORDA TO PARTS OF THE FORT MYERS METROPOLITAN AREA. MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS...RAIN...AND THUNDER HAVE BEEN OBSERVED DURING THE LAST FEW OBSERVATIONS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... MIDDLE LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW ENTERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA... AND IT COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE EAST OF 70W. THIS WIND FLOW IS RELATED TO THE 25N22W 19N45W 10N60W TROUGH. MIDDLE LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE WEST OF THE NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE MOVING THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND PRESENT ALSO IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...FROM COASTAL PANAMA TO SOUTHEASTERN NICARAGUA. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 7N76W IN COLOMBIA BEYOND 5N84W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...DIRECTLY RELATED TO THE MONSOON TROUGH. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC... AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...ONE AREA OF INTEREST THAT IS FROM 11N TO 16N E OF 78W AND FROM 16N TO 18N BETWEEN 75W AND 79W NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT...EXCEPT 25 TO 30 KT WITHIN 90 NM OF COAST OF COLOMBIA. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT...EXCEPT 10 TO 14 FT S OF 14N W OF 74W. A SECOND AREA IS...ELSEWHERE S OF 18N BETWEEN 68W AND 82W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT PRIMARILY IN E SWELL. .24 HOUR FORECAST FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 76W E WINDS 30 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 14 FT IN NE SWELL. ELSEWHERE FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 71W AND 79W AND FROM 15N TO 17N BETWEEN 72W AND 75W NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT IN NE SWELL...EXCEPT 10 TO 13 FT S OF 14N BETWEEN 74W AND 78W. REMAINDER AREA FROM 10N TO 17N BETWEEN 72W AND 81W AND FROM 10N TO 17N BETWEEN 65W AND 72W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT PRIMARILY IN E SWELL. ...HISPANIOLA... A NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED RIDGE CUTS DIRECTLY ACROSS HISPANIOLA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...AS DEPICTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...COVERS HISPANIOLA. CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM THE NORTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA TO AT LEAST 24N BETWEEN 60W AND 72W...IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. SKY CONDITIONS AND CURRENT WEATHER FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC... A LOW CLOUD CEILING COVERS PUERTO PLATA. SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS ARE BEING OBSERVED IN SANTIAGO. FEW LOW CLOUDS COVER BARAHONA...SANTO DOMINGO...LA ROMANA...PUNTA CANA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA WITH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT HISPANIOLA WILL BE DIRECTLY IN A RIDGE FOR ABOUT THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO SLIDE WESTWARD. HISPANIOLA WILL RECEIVE NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY WIND FLOW. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT EAST-TO-SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA. ...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A WEAKENING 25N22W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 23N32W...TO A 19N45W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 10N60W NEAR AND JUST OUTSIDE THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. CLOUDS AND CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 20N TO 26N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 24W...AND FROM 10N TO 23N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW AND MOISTURE COVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 22N TO THE EAST OF 53W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1034 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 36N38W...THROUGH 32N47W TO 30N53W AND 27N62W...ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO 23N86W IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 10N. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...ONE AREA FROM 17N TO 26N E OF 47W NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT IN NE SWELL. ELSEWHERE S OF LINE FROM 31N54W TO 20N72W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT IN NE SWELL. A SECOND AREA CONSISTS OF A COLD FRONT FROM 31N78W TO 29N81W. N OF 30N W OF FRONT NW TO N WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT