000 AXNT20 KNHC 290604 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST WED JAN 29 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST IN THE GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT 6 HOURS OR SO. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE ALONG 28N82W 24N90W 21N94.5W 18N94.5W. EXPECT GALE-FORCE NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS 9 TO 14 FEET WITHIN 90 NM OF THE COAST FROM 21N TO 25N. EXPECT ALSO NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 30 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 13 FEET ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF THE COLD FRONT TO THE WEST OF 85W. CURRENT CONDITIONS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...STATIONARY FRONT FROM 30N80W TO 27N86W...THEN COLD FRONT TO 23N94W TO 19.5N96.5W. EXPECT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 30 KNOTS...EXCEPT NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS TO THE SOUTH OF 25N TO THE WEST OF 95W. SEA HEIGHTS TO 13 FEET...HIGHEST IN THE WESTERN PART. EXPECT ALSO NORTH WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT BETWEEN 85W AND 90W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL AREAS OF GUINEA NEAR 10N14W...TO 8N16W 4N18W...TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 22W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM THE EQUATOR ALONG 22W TO 2S26W TO 1S34W... TO THE EQUATOR AGAIN ALONG 42W...INTO 2S49W IN BRAZIL. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 3N TO 4N BETWEEN 1W AND 3W...FROM 2S TO 4N BETWEEN 28W AND 47W...ALONG THE BRAZIL COAST WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 2S44W...AND FROM 1N TO 3N BETWEEN 49W AND 50W. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 4S TO 4N BETWEEN 10W AND 30W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 4N TO 9N BETWEEN 37W AND 46W. ...DISCUSSION... ...FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO... INCLUDING THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW SPANS THE GULF OF MEXICO. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS MUCH OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE WEST OF 64W. THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WAS ACCOMPANYING THE CURRENT FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS MOVED OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM A 1014 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 32N78W...ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR 29N82W...TO 28N86W IN THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. A COLD FRONT CONTINUES FROM 28N86W TO 25N90W 23N94W... TO 19N97W IN COASTAL MEXICO...AND 20N100W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES IN INTERIOR MEXICO FROM 20N100W INTO AND BEYOND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO. CLOUDS AND CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N68W 27N80W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 29/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLE...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.17 IN BERMUDA...AND 0.51 INCHES FOR 28/1200 UTC. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 87W/88W...LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED ACROSS THE AREA. VISIBILITIES OF 2 MILES OR LESS WITH FOG ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE ICAO STATION KMYT. FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM TEXAS TO FLORIDA... MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS COVER COASTAL TEXAS. LIGHT RAIN IS OBSERVED IN THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS AND LIGHT RAIN COVER THE REST OF THE U.S.A. COASTAL PLAINS FROM LOUISIANA TO FLORIDA NEAR TAMPA...AND TO THE FLORIDA KEYS. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... MIDDLE LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW ENTERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA... AND IT COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE EAST OF 70W. THIS WIND FLOW IS RELATED TO THE 25N19W 18N44W 10N60W TROUGH. MIDDLE LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE WEST OF THE NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE MOVING THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN SEA... EVEN IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...FROM COASTAL PANAMA TO SOUTHEASTERN NICARAGUA. NO MONSOON TROUGH IS PRESENT IN COLOMBIA OR IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC... AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 10 FEET...FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 68W AND 77W. EXPECT ALSO NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS FROM 11N TO 17N TO THE EAST OF 74W. SEA HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO REACH 9 FEET THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN PASSAGES. ...HISPANIOLA... A NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED RIDGE CUTS DIRECTLY ACROSS HISPANIOLA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...AS DEPICTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...COVERS HISPANIOLA. CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM THE NORTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA TO 24N BETWEEN 65W AND 69W...IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. SKY CONDITIONS AND CURRENT WEATHER FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC... SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS ARE BEING OBSERVED IN SANTO DOMINGO AND IN PUNTA CANA. FEW LOW CLOUDS COVER BARAHONA...LA ROMANA... SANTIAGO...AND IN PUERTO PLATA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA WITH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT HISPANIOLA WILL BE DIRECTLY IN A RIDGE. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT EAST-TO-SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA. ...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 25N19W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 23N32W...TO A 18N44W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 10N60W NEAR AND JUST OUTSIDE THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. CLOUDS AND CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 22N TO 27N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 23W...AND FROM 11N TO 22N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW AND MOISTURE COVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF 28N13W 23N30W 21N45W 11N47W 7N59W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1035 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 36N39W...THROUGH 32N49W TO 27N63W AND 26N70W...ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO 24N82W IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 10N. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 12 FEET...THE HIGHEST NEAR 23N48W...TO THE NORTH OF 17N TO THE LINE FROM 23N50W TO 29N35W...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 17N TO THE EAST OF 40W. EXPECT ALSO WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 11 FEET ELSEWHERE TO THE EAST OF 69W. THE 6-HOUR FORECAST CONSISTS OF A COLD FRONT FROM 31N79W TO 28.5N82W. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 30N...TO THE NORTH OF 28N TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT TO 76W. EXPECT ALSO NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 30N TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT