000 AXNT20 KNHC 282343 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST TUE JAN 28 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO VIA THE FLORIDA BIG BEND REGION SW TO 25N95W THEN S-SW TO THE MEXICO COAST NEAR 21N97W. GALE FORCE N- NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INITIATE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FAR WESTERN GULF BY 29/0000 UTC. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 07N12W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 21W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS ALONG THE EQUATOR FROM 38W TO 43W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 07N BETWEEN 11W-25W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 07N BETWEEN 33W-50W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER MUCH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THIS EVENING WITH MUCH OF THE MID-LEVEL ENERGY FOCUSED OVER THE ARKLATEX REGION IN THE FORM OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS TROUGHING SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT DRAPED FROM THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 30N82W SW TO 25N95W THEN S-SW TO THE MEXICO COAST NEAR 21N97W. MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE MOSTLY ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT AND WITH AT FREEZING OR SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES OBSERVED ALONG THE GULF COAST AND LOCATIONS INLAND...A MIX OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE NEAR-SHORE WATERS AND INLAND LOCATIONS. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT AND A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 26N90W TO 23N93W TO 19N93W AT 28/2100 UTC. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING TO THE EAST OF THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS SURFACE TROUGH FROM 25N-27N BETWEEN 84W-90W. THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT AND ACCELERATE DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE SHORTWAVE TROUGHING PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE MEAN TROUGHING OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND ENERGY FROM ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER NW MEXICO EJECTING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE NW GULF WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. STRONG NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS ARE FORECAST IN WAKE OF THE FRONT AS IT IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE GULF BASIN BY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ALONG WITH A VERY DRY AND SUBSIDENT AIR ALOFT ARE PROVIDING OVERALL STABLE CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING. A FEW AREAS OF LOW-LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND MOISTURE ARE BRINGING WIDELY SCATTERED LOW-TOPPED SHOWER ACTIVITY TO PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN N OF 13N BETWEEN 67W-80W...INCLUDING HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA...AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NW CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA FROM 12N-19N BETWEEN 84W-88W. OTHERWISE TRADES PERSIST WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED E OF 78W THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO WEDNESDAY. ...HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND DRY AIR ALOFT IS MAINTAINING OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS EVENING. LOW- LEVEL MOISTURE AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY W OF 71W...INCLUDING THE ADJACENT SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE VICINITY OF 36N90W THAT SUPPORTS A 1012 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 31N77W AND A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING SW FROM THE LOW CENTER TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 30N81W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LIGHT ANTICYCLONIC WIND AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM 30N55W TO THE FLORIDA STRAITS NEAR 24N80W. ONLY A FEW LOW-TOPPED ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING N OF 20N BETWEEN 58W-70W THIS EVENING. THE RIDGE AXIS IS ANCHORED BY A 1033 MB HIGH CENTERED SW OF THE AZORES NEAR 36N40W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN