000 AXNT20 KNHC 281801 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST TUE JAN 28 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1745 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NE FLORIDA SW THROUGH 27N90W TO TAMPICO MEXICO. A VERY TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BEHIND IT WILL USHER IN NW TO N MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS TO THE W CENTRAL GULF PORTION BEGINNING TONIGHT...AND TO THE SW PORTION ON WED. THE DURATION OF THESE IS FORECAST TO BE SHORT-LIVED AS THE PRES GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO RELAX BY LATE WED ALLOWING FOR THE WINDS TO DIMINISH TO JUST BELOW GALE FORCE. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 06N11 TO 03N17W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 03N17W TO BELOW THE EQUATOR AT 22W. IT RESUMES AT THE EQUATOR AT 34W AND CONTINUES TO 01N44W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS SEEN WITHIN 60 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 13W-17W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG AND S OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 31W-40W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A RATHER ZONAL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA...TO THE S OF BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. A JET STREAM BRANCH EXTENDS FROM FAR SW TEXAS AHEAD OF THE CUT-OFF LOW OVER NW MEXICO ENE ACROSS SOUTHERN LOUISIANA AND NE ACROSS THE SE U.S. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM NE FLORIDA SW TO TAMPICO MEXICO... ...WHILE A WEAK TROUGH IS ALONG 93W/94W S OF 24N. MOSIAC DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES WIDELY SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT E OF 89W. THE CURRENT SYNOPTIC SET-UP IS FAVORING THE TRANSPORT OF DENSE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE ENE TO THE N OF THE FRONT IN THE JET STREAM FLOW. THIS SET-UP IS BRINGING AREAS OF COLD RAIN TO JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE NORTHERN AND WESTERN GULF. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH WED OVER MUCH OF AFOREMENTIONED GULF AREAS AS THE COLD FRONT GRADUALLY SLIDES TO THE SE AND WEAKENS. THE NLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DIMINISH INTO THU AS HIGH PRES OVER THE AREA WEAKENS. CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ALONG WITH A VERY DRY AND SUBSIDENT AIRMASS ALOFT CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR OVERALL TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BASIN TODAY. A FEW CLUMPS OF LOW-LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND MOISTURE ARE BRINGING WIDELY SCATTERED LOW-TOP SHOWER ACTIVITY TO PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY IS BEGINNING TO MOVE ACROSS THE E AND SE PORTIONS OF JAMAICA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING NW ARE NOTED OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...AND SIMILAR SHOWERS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT IN THE SW PORTION OF THE CARIBBEAN IS BRINGING NE-E WINDS OF 20-30 KT THERE WITH THE STRONGEST OF THESE WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. HIGH PRES IN THE ATLC WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADES IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...AND OVER THE REST OF THE SW CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HRS. ...HISPANIOLA... A VERY PRONOUNCED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS MAINTAINING DRY AIR ALOFT ...RESULTING IN FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ISLAND. PATCHES OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS IS ALONG THE S CENTRAL AND SW COASTS OF THE ISLAND. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD PULL AWAY FROM THE ISLANDS TONIGHT. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN ALOFT IS SW AHEAD OF THE CENTRAL U.S. MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH LIFTING NE IS EMBEDDED IN THE SW FLOW...AND EXTENDS FROM NEAR 32N65W TO NEAR 23N64W WHERE IT BECOMES DIFFUSE IN THE DRY AIR. THE TROUGH IS HELPING TO PRODUCE SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED WEAK TSTMS N OF 27N BETWEEN 61W-71W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ABUNDANT MOISTURE OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE BASIN. A 1015 MB LOW MOVING NE 25 KT IS NEAR 31N78W WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING SW TO INLAND NE FLORIDA. SMALL PATCHES OF RAIN AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE UNDERNEATH THESE CLOUDS. THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SAG SOUTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE STALLING LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. ON WED...A REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MERGE WITH IT WITH THE MERGED FRONT THEN FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM 31N70W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS LATE WED. IT WILL MOVE BACK TO THE NW AS WEAK LOW PRES MAKES MOVES EASTWARD ALONG THE FRONT FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO THU. ELSEWHERE...A CUT-OFF UPPER LOW MOVING W IS IDENTIFIED NEAR 17N45W. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM SE AND 120 NM NW OF THE LOW. THE LOW WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NW TO N OVER THE NEXT 48 HRS WHILE OPENING UP TO A TROUGH. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A NEARLY STATIONARY 1040 MB HIGH CENTERED W OF THE AZORES NEAR 35N38W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ AGUIRRE