000 AXNT20 KNHC 281148 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST TUE JAN 28 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST IN THE GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT 18 HOURS OR SO. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE ALONG 28N82W 22N95W 19N95W. EXPECT GALE-FORCE NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS 9 TO 12 FEET WITHIN 90 NM OF THE COAST FROM 22N TO 25N. EXPECT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 30 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 11 FEET ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF THE COLD FRONT TO THE WEST OF 88W. CURRENT CONDITIONS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...COLD FRONT FROM 30N83W TO TO 26N94W TO 24N98W. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS BUILDING TO 8 FEET IN THE WESTERN PART...TO THE NORTH OF THE COLD FRONT TO THE WEST OF 90W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL AREAS OF GUINEA NEAR 10N14W...TO 8N17W AND 6N18W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 6N18W TO 2N20W...TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 23W...TO 1S27W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR AGAIN ALONG 32W...TO 2N36W...AND 2N41W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 30 NM TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 5N10W 5N13W 3N19W 2N23W 1S29W 1S32W 1S35W 2S43W...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 2N BETWEEN 43W AND 50W...FROM 6N TO 7N BETWEEN 46W AND 47W...AND FROM 4N TO 5N WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 50W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 10N TO THE EAST OF 52W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW SPANS THE GULF OF MEXICO. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THE CURRENT GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT IS WELL INLAND. THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA NEAR 30N83W... INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 24N99W...TO 25N101W IN MEXICO. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 25N101W... NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH MEXICO INTO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N70W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO LAKE OKEECHOBEE IN FLORIDA...TO 24N90W AND 19N100W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...AS DEPICTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...IS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SAME 32N70W 19N100W LINE. BROKEN MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS IN GENERAL ARE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE SAME 32N70W 19N100W LINE. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 87W/88W...LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED ACROSS THE AREA. FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM TEXAS TO FLORIDA... LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE COASTAL PLAINS FROM TEXAS TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA. THE VISIBILITY HAS BEEN NEAR 2 MILES OR LESS WITH FOG NEAR PERRY FLORIDA FOR THE LAST FEW OBSERVATIONS. VISIBILITIES OF 1 MILE OR LESS WITH FOG COVER THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM BROOKSVILLE TO NAPLES. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN ABOUT 36 HOURS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST... MIAHSFEP2/ FZPN03 KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS... ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CUBA TO JAMAICA...TO THE WEST CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 14N80W...TO THE EAST OF THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF NICARAGUA. LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS COVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA IN THE AREA THAT IS TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO 9N80W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE LINE FROM 16N77W 15N70W TO 10N65W. SURFACE-TO-LOW LEVEL EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THIS AREA. 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 28/0000 UTC ARE 0.12 IN GUADELOUPE...AND FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 27/1200 UTC...0.46 IN TRINIDAD...AND 0.24 IN BARBADOS. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 6N75W IN COLOMBIA TO 3N78W BEYOND 2N83W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS RELATED DIRECTLY TO THE MONSOON TROUGH IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC... AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS...EXCEPT TO 30 KNOTS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 11 FEET...FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 79W. EXPECT ALSO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET FROM 13N TO 17N TO THE EAST OF 64W. ...HISPANIOLA... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS CROSSING HISPANIOLA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE... AS DEPICTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...COVERS HISPANIOLA. CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE TO THE NORTH OF HISPANIOLA IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. SKY CONDITIONS AND CURRENT WEATHER FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC... SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS ARE BEING OBSERVED IN SANTIAGO AND BARAHONA. FEW LOW CLOUDS COVER SANTO DOMINGO...LA ROMANA...AND PUNTA CANA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA WITH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW FROM A CARIBBEAN SEA TROUGH TO THE WEST OF HISPANIOLA...AND SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW FROM A SEPARATE AND SECOND RIDGE TO THE EAST OF HISPANIOLA...WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA...FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS OR SO. HISPANIOLA WILL SPEND THE NEXT 24 HOURS RIGHT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE RIDGE. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT EAST-TO-SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA. ...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N65W TO 24N65W. A SURFACE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N66W TO 31N68W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE FROM THE NORTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA BEYOND 32N BETWEEN 59W AND 72W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 28/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLE...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.34 IN BERMUDA. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 26N26W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 22N33W...TO A 17N44W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 10N60W NEAR AND JUST OUTSIDE THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. CLOUDS AND CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 22N TO 29N BETWEEN 18W AND 30W... AND FROM 13N TO 20N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW AND MOISTURE COVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE EAST OF THE 26N26W 10N60W TROUGH. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1035 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 36N38W...THROUGH 32N50W TO 31N57W 30N61W 27N67W...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS NEAR 25N78W...TO 25N92W IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 10N BETWEEN 30W AND 80W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 9 TO 12 FEET FROM 20N TO 28N TO THE EAST OF 51W. EXPECT ALSO WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 11 FEET ELSEWHERE TO THE EAST OF 66W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT