000 AXNT20 KNHC 280603 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST TUE JAN 28 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST IN THE GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS TO 48 HOURS. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE ALONG 27N82W 23N94W 19N95W. EXPECT GALE-FORCE NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS 9 TO 13 FEET WITHIN 90 NM OF THE COAST FROM 22N TO 25N. EXPECT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 30 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 11 FEET ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF THE COLD FRONT TO THE WEST OF 88W. EXPECT ALSO GALE-FORCE WINDS AT 48 HOURS. CURRENT CONDITIONS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...COLD FRONT FROM 30N86W TO 25N97.5W. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS BUILDING TO 8 FEET TO THE NORTH OF THE COLD FRONT. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL AREAS OF LIBERIA NEAR 7N11W TO 4N14W AND 2N20W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 2N20W TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 24W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM THE EQUATOR TO 1S BETWEEN 24W AND 50W IN COASTAL BRAZIL. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 1N TO 5N BETWEEN 14W AND 24W...FROM 1S TO 1N BETWEEN 26W AND 29W...AND FROM 2S TO 4S BETWEEN 42W AND 48W IN BRAZIL. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 10N TO THE EAST OF 51W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW SPANS THE GULF OF MEXICO. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THE CURRENT GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT IS WELL INLAND. THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 31N85W... INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 25N98W JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE TEXAS BORDER...TO 26N101W IN MEXICO. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 26N101W... NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH MEXICO INTO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N74W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 29N82W IN FLORIDA...TO 25N90W TO 21N97W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...AS DEPICTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...IS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SAME 32N74W 21N97W LINE. BROKEN MULTILAYERED CLOUDS IN GENERAL ARE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N72W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...28N79W 27N90W 24N93W 20N97W. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 87W/88W...LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED ACROSS THE AREA. FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM TEXAS TO FLORIDA... LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE COASTAL PLAINS FROM TEXAS TO MISSISSIPPI. LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS COVER THE COASTAL PLAINS FROM MISSISSIPPI INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND TO PERRY FLORIDA. THE VISIBILITY IN APALACHICOLA HAS BEEN 2 MILES OR LESS WITH FOG FOR THE LAST FEW OBSERVATIONS. VISIBILITIES OF 1 MILE OR LESS WITH FOG COVER THE TAMPA METROPOLITAN AREA...AND THE FLORIDA SOUTHWEST COAST FROM NAPLES TO PUNTA GORDA. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORCED TO DEVELOP IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/ FZPN03 KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS... ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CUBA TO JAMAICA...TO THE WEST CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 14N80W...TO THE EAST OF THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF NICARAGUA. LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS COVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA IN THE AREA THAT IS BOUNDED BY...THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...TO 11N82W...TO 22N84W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LINE FROM 18N75W TO 12N68W. SURFACE-TO-LOW LEVEL EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THIS AREA. 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 28/0000 UTC ARE 0.12 IN GUADELOUPE...AND FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 27/1200 UTC...0.46 IN TRINIDAD...AND 0.24 IN BARBADOS. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 4N74W IN COLOMBIA TO 1N79W TO 1N83W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS RELATED DIRECTLY TO THE MONSOON TROUGH IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC... AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS...EXCEPT TO 30 KNOTS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 10 FEET...FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 78W. ...HISPANIOLA... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS CROSSING HISPANIOLA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE... AS DEPICTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...COVERS HISPANIOLA. CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE TO THE NORTH OF HISPANIOLA IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. SKY CONDITIONS AND CURRENT WEATHER FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC... FEW LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS COVER LA ROMANA. SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED IN BARAHONA AND SANTO DOMINGO. FEW LOW CLOUDS COVER PUNTA CANA...SANTIAGO...AND PUERTO PLATA. FEW LOW CLOUDS COVER PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA WITH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS THE AREA FOR THE FIRST 12 HOURS OR SO...WITH A CARIBBEAN SEA TROUGH. SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE WESTERN HALF OF HISPANIOLA WITH THE SAME TROUGH...AND SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE EASTERN HALF OF HISPANIOLA WITH A RIDGE...FOR ANOTHER 12 TO 18 HOURS OR SO. EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WITH THE SAME ATLANTIC OCEAN TO CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE COVERS THE AREA FOR THE REST OF THE 48 HOUR TIME PERIOD. ...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N66W TO 24N66W. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N67W TO 31N69W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 31N72W 27N74W 24N75W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO THE NORTH OF 23N BETWEEN 60W AND 75W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 18/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLE... MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.34 IN BERMUDA. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 26N26W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 22N33W...TO A 17N44W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 10N60W NEAR AND JUST OUTSIDE THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. CLOUDS AND CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 22N TO 29N BETWEEN 20W AND 30W... AND FROM 12N TO 20N BETWEEN 40W AND 49W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW AND MOISTURE COVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE EAST OF THE 26N26W 10N60W TROUGH. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1035 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 36N38W...THROUGH 32N50W TO 29N57W 27N62W AND 26N68W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 10N BETWEEN 30W AND 70W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 9 TO 12 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 28N TO THE EAST OF 58W. EXPECT ALSO WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 11 FEET ELSEWHERE TO THE EAST OF 67W. THE 24-HOUR FORECAST POSITION OF A COLD FRONT IS 31N79W 29N81W. EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT. EXPECT ALSO SOUTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 30N WITHIN 180 NM TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT