000 AXNT20 KNHC 272358 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST MON JAN 27 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM EASTERN LOUISIANA NEAR NEW ORLEANS SW TO THE TEXAS GULF COAST NEAR 27N97W THAT IS FORECAST TO BRING GALE FORCE N-NW WINDS TO PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN AND NORTH- CENTRAL GULF BY 28/0600 UTC. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 06N10W TO 03N17W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 03N17W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 27W THEN ALONG THE EQUATOR TO 49W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 06N BETWEEN 16W-32W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE GULF THIS EVENING...BUT REMAINS A MINIMAL IMPACT DUE TO GENERALLY WESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW AND AN OVERALL WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT PATTERN AT THE SURFACE. OVERALL MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE NE CONUS AND GREAT LAKES REGION HOWEVER SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING INTO THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF NEAR NEW ORLEANS SW TO THE TEXAS GULF COAST NEAR 27N97W. MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A RELATIVELY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT RESULTING IN GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE COLD FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 27N81W W-SW TO 26N87W AND IS PROVIDING FOCUS FOR A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE E-SE OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA EJECTS EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND NW GULF WATERS THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. STRONG NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN WAKE OF THE FRONT AS IT IS FORECAST TO CLEAR THE GULF BASIN BY LATE WEDNESDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ALONG WITH A VERY DRY AND SUBSIDENT AIRMASS ALOFT ARE PROVIDING OVERALL TRANQUIL CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING. A FEW AREAS OF LOW-LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND MOISTURE ARE BRINGING WIDELY SCATTERED LOW-TOPPED SHOWER ACTIVITY TO PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN E OF 71W AND TO THE ADJACENT WATERS SURROUNDING JAMAICA...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND CUBA. THE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL PORTION IS FOCUSED IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM THE SE BAHAMAS IN THE SW NORTH ATLC S-SW TO SOUTH OF JAMAICA NEAR 17N78W. OTHERWISE TRADES PERSIST WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED S OF 15N BETWEEN 68W-79W...AND ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN E OF 66W. ...HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND DRY AIR ALOFT IS MAINTAINING OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS EVENING. LOW- LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE ISLAND FROM THE SE WHICH MAY ENHANCE ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED OVER THE NE CONUS WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE VICINITY OF 34N71W THAT SUPPORTS A PAIR OF SURFACE TROUGHS...ONE ANALYZED FROM 30N77W SW TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA COAST NEAR 28N80W AND THE OTHER FARTHER EAST FROM 30N70W TO 26N75W. WHILE ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WESTERNMOST BOUNDARY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 330 NM EAST OF THE EASTERNMOST BOUNDARY. FURTHER ENHANCING THE CONVECTION IS AMPLE MIDDLE LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGHING. THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1035 MB HIGH CENTERED W OF THE AZORES NEAR 37N36W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN