000 AXNT20 KNHC 271803 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST MON JAN 27 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... GALE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO STARTING WED JAN 29 AT 0600 UTC. GALE NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED FROM 22N-24N WEST OF A COLD FRONT FROM 27N82W TO 22N95W TO 20N96W. PLEASE SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER WMO/AWIPS HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST UNDER WMO/AWIPS HEADERS MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 6N10W AND CONTINUES TO 2N16W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 01N20W TO 0S35W INTO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 0N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2S-5N BETWEEN 17W-35W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE MONSOON AND ITCZ AXES. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO COVER MOST OF THE U.S. AND THE WEST ATLC WHICH EXTENDS ITS BASE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. THIS TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT ENTERS THE NW GULF AS A COLD FRONT NEAR 29N93W TO 27N97W AND ALSO A PAIR OF SURFACE TROUGHS. THE FIRST SURFACE TROUGH IS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN ALABAMA NEAR 31N86W TO SOUTHERN LOUISIANA NEAR 29N91W SW TO 28N94W. THE SECOND TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA TO 27N82W...THEN W-SW ALONG 27N86W TO 25N89W. RADAR IMAGERY SHOW RAINSHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM SOUTH OF THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH BETWEEN 85W-92W AND WITHIN 80 NM SOUTH OF THE LEADING TROUGH EAST OF 84W. FAIR WEATHER IS ACROSS THE REMAINDER BASIN BEING SUPPORTED BY LOWER AND MIDDLE LEVEL DRY AIR. A 1012 MB LOW IS OVER THE SW BASIN NEAR 21N96W WHICH IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE LATER TODAY. IN TERMS OF WIND...SOUTHERLY-SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW IN THE RANGE OF 5-10 KT DOMINATES ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SHIFT S THROUGH MID WEEK. GALE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT STARTING TUE NIGHT. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. CARIBBEAN SEA... A BROAD UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED INLAND OVER COLOMBIA. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR OVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN BASIN. A REMNANT SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE NW CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS...ACROSS EASTERN CUBA AND CENTRAL JAMAICA TO 17N77W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 17N BETWEEN 75W-79W. SATELLITE DERIVED WIND DATA SHOW MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADEWINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND A SLIGHT TO A GENTLE BREEZE ELSEWHERE. THE WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL BECOME DIFFUSE LATER TODAY. TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THU. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE NW BASIN ON WED. HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE HINDERS DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS THE ISLAND. HOWEVER...AN AREA OF LOW- LEVEL MOISTURE APPROACHES THE ISLAND FROM THE SE WHICH MAY ENHANCE ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT TOMORROW AFTERNOON. ATLANTIC... A BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO COVER MOST OF THE U.S. AND THE WEST ATLC WHICH EXTENDS ITS BASE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. OVER THE SW N ATLC...THIS TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A PAIR OF SURFACE TROUGHS. THE FIRST TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N77W SW TO CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR 28N80W THEN ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO THE EASTERN GULF. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH DISSIPATED EARLIER TODAY. THE SECOND TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N68W TO 25N75W WITH HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS EXTENDING WITHIN 100 NM EAST OF THE AXIS FROM 24N-28N. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS N OF 28N BETWEEN 65W-72W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A PAIR OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS NEAR THE AZORES. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ NR