000 AXNT20 KNHC 271114 RRA TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST MON JAN 27 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING IS FORECAST TO BEGIN EARLY WED MORNING W OF COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE N GULF TODAY. PLEASE SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER WMO/AWIPS HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST UNDER WMO/AWIPS HEADERS MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 6N10W AND CONTINUES TO 3N15W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 23W INTO SOUTH AMERICA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 6N BETWEEN 12W-24W AND FROM 5N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 24W-35W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-3N BETWEEN 2W-7W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER TROUGH DIPS S OVER THE FAR E GULF AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE W ATLC E OF 85W AMPLIFYING AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS FROM THE CARIBBEAN TO OVER TEXAS AND THE SOUTHERN PLAIN STATES. A LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE LINE IS OVER THE NE GULF FROM 27N86W TO NEAR CEDAR KEY FLORIDA GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF 27N E OF 89W. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR VERACRUZ. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE N GULF TODAY AND SLOWLY SHIFT S THROUGH MID WEEK. GALE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT SPREADING S FROM THE W/CENTRAL GULF TO THE SW GULF LATE TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED THEN SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE S GULF THU. CARIBBEAN SEA... A BROAD UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED INLAND OVER COLOMBIA. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR OVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN BASIN. A REMNANT SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM S CUBA NEAR 21N78W W OF JAMAICA TO 15N81W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE OVER THE S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ELSEWHERE. THESE TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS OVER THE GULF OF GONAVE AND EXTREME SW HAITI AND WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM 12N60W ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS TO 17N76W. WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN TODAY AND BECOME DIFFUSE. TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THU. HISPANIOLA... ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER EXTREME SW HAITI THIS MORNING AND INTO THE GULF OF GONAVE. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE S COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK KEEPING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM FORMING. HOWEVER THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS COULD CONTINUE TO GIVE THE ISLAND ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH TUE WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING WED. ATLANTIC... THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE W ATLC W OF 70W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS W OF LINE FROM MELBOURNE FLORIDA TO BEYOND 32N74W. REMNANT SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS IN THE W ATLC FROM 28N71W TO JUST OFF THE N COAST OF CUBA NEAR 22N75W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS FROM THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TO BEYOND 32N48W. AN ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE MADEIRA ISLANDS THROUGH AN UPPER LOW NEAR 24N27W TO A SECOND UPPER LOW NEAR 16N45W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 5N52W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOWS FROM 22N-26N BETWEEN 25W-28W AND FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 43W- 47W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1036 MB HIGH JUST W OF THE AZORES WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 30N21W TO INLAND OVER W AFRICA NEAR 17N16W. W ATLC SURFACE TROUGH WILL BECOME DIFFUSE TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST LATE TONIGHT AND STALL ACROSS THE EXTREME NW ATLC TUE WITH A REINFORCING FRONT OVERTAKING IT WED. THE MERGED FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM 32N70W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS WED NIGHT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW