000 AXNT20 KNHC 270541 RRA TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST MON JAN 27 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 6N10W AND CONTINUES TO 3N18W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 00N30W 1N38W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR INTO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 41W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 5N BETWEEN 13W-23W AND FROM 4N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 23W-37W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER TROUGH DIPS S OVER THE E GULF INTO THE W ATLC E OF 87W FORCING THE AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS FROM THE CARIBBEAN WESTWARD TO OVER TEXAS. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEAR TAMPA FLORIDA OVER THE E GULF ALONG 25N85W TO 23N88W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF THE SURFACE TROUGH N OF 23N. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF ANCHORED BY A 1016 MB HIGH NEAR 26N88W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE N GULF FROM 27N- 29N BETWEEN 88W-92W. SURFACE TROUGH WILL BECOME DIFFUSE TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE N GULF MON AND SLOWLY SHIFT S THROUGH MID WEEK. GALE CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT SPREADING S FROM THE W/CENTRAL GULF TO THE SW GULF LATE TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED. CARIBBEAN SEA... A BROAD UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED INLAND OVER COLOMBIA. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR OVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN BASIN. A REMNANT SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM S CUBA NEAR 20N77W ACROSS THE W TIP OF JAMAICA TO 15N78W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE OVER THE S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ELSEWHERE. THESE TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS OVER HAITI AND IN THE GULF OF GONAVE. WEAK SURFACE WILL MOVE INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN ON MON AND BECOME DIFFUSE. HISPANIOLA... ISOLATED SHOWERS COVER HAITI TONIGHT AND INTO THE GULF OF GONAVE. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ALONG THE BORDER OF HAITI. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK KEEPING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM FORMING. HOWEVER THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS COULD CONTINUE TO GIVE THE ISLAND ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH TUE WIT CONDITIONS CLEARING WED. ATLANTIC... THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE W ATLC W OF 73W GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM OFF VERO BEACH FLORIDA TO BEYOND 32N74W. REMNANT SURFACE TROUGHS REMAIN IN THE W ATLC EXTENDING FROM 31N60W ALONG 30N65W TO 28N68W. A SECOND MORE ACTIVE SURFACE TROUGH IS FROM 25N73W TO THE N COAST OF CUBA NEAR 21N75W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 180 NM W OF THE SECOND SURFACE TROUGH. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS FROM THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TO BEYOND 32N46W. AN ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE MADEIRA ISLANDS THROUGH AN UPPER LOW NEAR 24N27W TO A SECOND UPPER LOW NEAR 17N43W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 5N52W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOWS FROM 22N-26N BETWEEN 26W-28W AND FROM 15N- 18N BETWEEN 41W-44W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1038 MB HIGH JUST W OF THE AZORES WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA EXTENDING FROM 21N18W 17N20W TO 14N20W. W ATLC SURFACE TROUGHS WILL BECOME DIFFUSE ON MON. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST MON NIGHT AND STALL ACROSS THE EXTREME NW PORTION OF THE AREA BY LATE TUE WITH A REINFORCING FRONT OVERTAKING IT WED. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW