000 AXNT20 KNHC 262338 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST SUN JAN 26 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 7N11W AND CONTINUES ALONG TO 3N16W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 3N30W TO 1N40W TO ALONG THE EQUATOR INTO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 49W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-3N BETWEEN 20W-26W AND ALSO FROM 0N-2N BETWEEN 40W-45W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 240 NM N OF A LINE FROM 5N27W-3N34W AND ALSO FROM 1N-8N BETWEEN 34W-40W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE U.S. TENNESSEE VALLEY TO THE SE NEAR THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER INTO THE NE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH 26N86W TO A BASE NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AT 22N86W. THIS TROUGH HAS BEEN SUPPORTING A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT WHICH EXTENDS FROM NEAR TAMPA BAY FLORIDA AT 27N83W TO SE LOUISIANA AT 29N89W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS SE OF THE FRONT EXTENDING FROM NEAR FORT MYERS FLORIDA AT 27N83W TO N OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AT 23N88W. THIS TROUGH IS THE REMNANTS OF A FORMER STATIONARY FRONT. BOTH THE DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT AND TROUGH ARE FORECAST TO BECOME DIFFUSE AND COMPLETELY DISSIPATE TONIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS THE NE GULF NEAR THE TROUGH AND FRONT...EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA AS INDICATED BY WSR-88D RADAR MOSAIC IMAGERY. MAINLY LIGHT TO MODERATE VARIABLE WINDS AND 2-4 FT SEAS ARE E OF 90W. 1018 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL GULF AT 25N91W AND AN ATTENDANT RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WATERS W OF 90W. LIGHT ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW AND MAINLY 2-4 FT SEAS ARE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE GULF UNDER THE HIGH AND RIDGING. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE NW GULF MON SLOWLY SAGGING S ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH TUE. IT IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM NEAR TAMPA BAY FLORIDA TO 26N90W TO NEAR VERACRUZ MEXICO BY TUE AFTERNOON. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THE FRONT WITH GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE W OF THE FRONT NEAR THE MEXICAN COAST BY LATE TUE. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES THE MAJORITY OF THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED BY A STATIONARY UPPER ANTICYCLONE OVER NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AND STABLE AIR OVER THE BASIN. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS IN THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN WHERE THE BASE OF A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS TO NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM EASTERN CUBA TO ACROSS CENTRAL JAMAICA WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVING DEVELOPED NEAR THE TROUGH AXIS BETWEEN CUBA AND JAMAICA AND INCLUDING THE APPROACH TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. TRADE WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 10-20 KT DOMINATE THE BASIN...EXCEPT 20-30 KT IN THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. SEAS ARE MAINLY 2-4 FT W OF 80W...AND 5-8 FT E OF 80W...EXCEPT 8-11 FT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. LITTLE CHANGE IN MARINE CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS. HISPANIOLA... ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI IN THE WAKE OF A SURFACE TROUGH LOCATED TO THE W ACROSS EASTERN CUBA AND JAMAICA. A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR THE TROUGH BETWEEN CUBA AND JAMAICA WITH UPPER LEVEL SW WINDS ALOFT PUSHING THE TOPS OF THE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NE TOWARD/NEAR THE SW TIP OF HAITI...ALTHOUGH THE STORMS THEMSELVES SHOULD REMAIN JUST W OF HAITI. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WITH DRY AND STABLE AIR WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TUE...HELPING TO SUPPRESS ANY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. ATLANTIC... A PAIR OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONES ARE IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA WITH THE NE CYCLONE AT 25N25W AND THE SECOND CYCLONE TO THE SW AT 19N43W. MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING EXTENDS FROM THE FIRST CYCLONE SW TO A COL NEAR 22N35W WITH TROUGHING EXTENDING FROM THE SW CYCLONE TO A BASE NEAR THE NE COAST OF FRENCH GUIANA. BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS LOCATED SE OF THE TROUGHING EXTENDING ACROSS WESTERN AFRICA S OF 26N. MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED FROM THE DEEP TROPICS AND ITCZ TO THE NE ACROSS WESTERN AFRICA S OF 26N AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE AND TO THE E OF THE UPPER TROUGHING. NO SIGNIFICANT SURFACE FEATURES ARE NOTED E OF 60W OTHER THAN A RIDGE WHICH STRETCHES FROM 32N42W TO 27N60W. W OF 60W...THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STRETCHES FROM THE NE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NE THROUGH 23N60W. A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. IS MOVING E TOWARD THE U.S. MID-ATLANTIC AND SE U.S. COASTLINE. MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED ACROSS THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND TO THE NW OF THE UPPER RIDGE. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR 32N60W SW TO NEAR THE TURKS AND CAICOS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE LOCATED S OF 27N EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS N OF 27N WITHIN 240 NM E OF THE FRONT. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO COMPLETELY DISSIPATE TONIGHT. ANOTHER DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT IS LOCATED TO THE NW...EXTENDING FROM NEAR BERMUDA THROUGH 30N71W TO NEAR MELBOURNE FLORIDA. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NEAR THE FRONT. THIS FRONT IS ALSO FORECAST TO DISSIPATE TONIGHT. MODERATE VARIABLE WINDS AND MAINLY 4-7 FT SEAS ARE LOCATED W OF 60W EXCEPT 1-3 FT INSIDE THE BAHAMAS...WITH FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS AND 8-13 FT SEAS IN N- NE SWELL E OF 60W. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFF OF THE SE U.S. COAST INTO THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE AREA BY MON NIGHT...STALLING ACROSS THE NW PORTION BY LATE TUE. ASSOCIATED WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN 20 KT OR LESS AND LESS THAN 8 FT THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ LEWITSKY