000 AXNT20 KNHC 261750 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST SUN JAN 26 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 7N11W AND CONTINUES ALONG 3N15W TO 1N20W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 2N31W 1N41W TO S OF THE EQUATOR INTO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-7N BETWEEN 24W-43W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FROM 2S-3N BETWEEN 16W-28W AND FROM 4S-2N WEST OF 32W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH COVERING MOST OF THE U.S. AND THE WEST ATLC HAS ITS BASE OVER THE NW. ON THE GULF...THIS TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT ENTERS THE EASTERN BASIN AS A COLD FRONT NEAR 27N82W TO 27N84W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG 28N87W TO 29N91W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALSO SUPPORTED ALONG 26N83W TO 23N88W TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 18N93W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS THE NE GULF N OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS WELL AS WITHIN 140 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH E OF 89W. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER GULF ANCHORED BY A 1019 MB HIGH NEAR 24N91W THAT PROVIDES ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW OF 5-10 KT. BOTH THE SURFACE TROUGH AND THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BECOME DIFFUSE TODAY. A STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO THE N GULF BY MON MORNING SLOWLY SAGGING S ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH TUE. CARIBBEAN SEA... A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED INLAND OVER COLOMBIA. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR OVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN BASIN WHICH IS INHIBITING DEEP CONVECTION. AS OF 1500 UTC...THE STATIONARY FRONT HAS DISSIPATED. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COAST OF HONDURAS IS GENERATING SHOWERS S OF 18N WEST OF 84W. FARTHER EAST...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 20N74W TO 12N75W WHICH IS ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 15N-19N BETWEEN 72W-77W. TRADEWINDS IN THE RANGE OF 15-20 KT COVERS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN WHILE 10-15 KT NORTHEASTERLIES DOMINATE OVER THE NW BASIN. THE SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER JAMAICA LATER TODAY GENERATING SHOWERS AND THEN MOVE INTO EASTERN HONDURAS TUE MORNING. HISPANIOLA... ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER PORTIONS OF SW HAITI AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH JUST EAST OF JAMAICA. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TUE MORNING THUS ASSISTING IN KEEPING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM FORMING. ATLANTIC... A BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH COVERING MOST OF THE U.S. AND THE WEST ATLC HAS ITS BASE OVER THE NW. ON THE WEST ATLC...THIS TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT ENTERS THE SW N ATLC AS A COLD FRONT FROM 30N71W TO 29N78W TO 28N80W AND A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT FROM 30N60W TO 24N70W TO EASTERN CUBA NEAR 20N76W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WEST OF THE COLD FRONT AS WELL AS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE STATIONARY FRONT THAT IS DISSIPATING. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE N OF 26N BETWEEN 57W-63W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1039 MB HIGH JUST SW OF THE AZORES. THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL COMPLETELY DISSIPATE TODAY. THE W ATLC COLD FRONT WILL RACE ACROSS THE N WATERS TODAY AND MERGE WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE STATIONARY FRONT TONIGHT. THE RESULTANT WEAK BOUNDARY WILL RETROGRADE INTO THE SE BAHAMAS MON WHILE GRADUALLY DISSIPATING. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF NE FLORIDA LATE MON STALLING ACROSS THE NW PORTION LATE TUE WITH A REINFORCING FRONT OVERTAKING IT WED. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ NR