000 AXNT20 KNHC 261323 RRA TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST SUN JAN 26 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... W ATLC GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT N OF 29N W OF 72W FOR FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE AND WILL BE DISCONTINUED THIS MORNING. PLEASE SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER WMO/AWIPS HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST UNDER WMO/AWIPS HEADERS MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 9N14W AND CONTINUES ALONG 6N16W TO 4N19W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 2N25W 3N37W TO S OF THE EQUATOR INTO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 43W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 4N BETWEEN 1W-10W AND FROM 1N-6N BETWEEN 26W-40W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE GULF FROM W CUBA TO THE N GULF COAST NEAR NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEAR JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA ACROSS TAMPA INTO THE GULF ALONG 26N85W 23N92W TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 19N92W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE SURFACE TROUGH N OF 23N. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE GULF AND IS SPLIT BY THE SURFACE TROUGH ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR 22N96W AND A 1020 MB HIGH NEAR 22N88W. OVERCAST LOW TO MID CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS COVER A PORTION OF THE GULF WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM TAMPA FLORIDA ALONG 25N90W TO 23N97W. SURFACE TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY BECOME DIFFUSE TODAY. A STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO THE N GULF BY MON SLOWLY SAGGING S ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH MID WEEK. CARIBBEAN SEA... A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED INLAND OVER COLOMBIA. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR OVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN BASIN. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS CUBA NEAR CAMAGUEY OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS TO 18N82W. REMNANT MOISTURE LINGERS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS S OF 19N W OF 86W. FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE OVER THE S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ELSEWHERE. THESE TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 12N63W TO 17N76W. STATIONARY FRONT WILL COMPLETELY DISSIPATE TODAY. TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK. HISPANIOLA... POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN OVER PORTIONS OF SW HAITI. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK KEEPING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM FORMING. HOWEVER THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS COULD CONTINUE TO GIVE THE ISLAND ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH TUE. ATLANTIC... THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NW ATLC EXTENDS INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 28N BETWEEN 60W-80W SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N75W TO 30N80W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 180 NM SE THE FRONT. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS IN THE W/CENTRAL ATLC ENTERING NEAR 32N60W AND CONTINUES ALONG 26N69W ACROSS THE BAHAMAS NEAR 23N75W TO ACROSS CUBA NEAR CAMAGUEY. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS FROM THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO BEYOND 32N44W. AN ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 26N14W THROUGH AN UPPER LOW NEAR 22N23W ALONG 15N42W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 6N54W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1037 MB HIGH JUST W OF THE AZORES. STATIONARY FRONT WILL COMPLETELY DISSIPATE TODAY. THE W ATLC COLD FRONT WILL RACE ACROSS THE N WATERS TODAY AND MERGE WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE STATIONARY FRONT TONIGHT. THE RESULTANT WEAK BOUNDARY WILL RETROGRADE INTO THE SE BAHAMAS MON WHILE GRADUALLY DISSIPATING. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF NE FLORIDA LATE MON STALLING ACROSS THE NW PORTION LATE TUE WITH A REINFORCING FRONT OVERTAKING IT WED. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW