000 AXNT20 KNHC 260556 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST SUN JAN 26 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... W ATLC GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT N OF 29N W OF 72W FOR FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE AND WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. PLEASE SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER WMO/AWIPS HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST UNDER WMO/AWIPS HEADERS MIAOFFNT4/ FZNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 5N9W AND CONTINUES TO 3N15W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO ALONG THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 24N AND 35W THEN 1N41W BEFORE TURNING S OF THE EQUATOR INTO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 44W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 1N-7N BETWEEN 4N-13N. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE GULF FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO THE NW COAST NEAR THE LOUISIANA/TEXAS BORDER. A SURFACE TROUGH SPLITS THE GULF EXTENDING FROM NE GULF NEAR 30N84W ALONG 27N85W 24N91W TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 19N93W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. THIS SURFACE TROUGH SPLITS A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A PAIR OF 1021 MB HIGHS NEAR 23N87W AND 25N96W. OVERCAST LOW TO MID CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS COVER A PORTION OF THE GULF FROM 24N-28N BETWEEN 85W-96W AND S OF 24N BETWEEN 93W-97W. SURFACE TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY BECOME DIFFUSE THROUGH EARLY SUN. A STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO THE N GULF BY MON SLOWLY SAGGING S ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH MID WEEK. CARIBBEAN SEA... A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED INLAND OVER COLOMBIA. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR OVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN BASIN. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA NEAR SANTA CLARA TO 18N83W. REMNANT MOISTURE LINGERS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE STATIONARY FRONT AND IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS S OF 19N W OF 86W. FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE OVER THE S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ELSEWHERE. THESE TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS 15N TO THE S COAST OF HISPANIOLA BETWEEN 70W-75W. STATIONARY FRONT WILL COMPLETELY DISSIPATE TONIGHT. TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK. HISPANIOLA... POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN OVER PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK KEEPING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM FORMING. HOWEVER THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS COULD CONTINUE TO GIVE THE ISLAND ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH TUE. ATLANTIC... THE UPPER TROUGH NW ATLC EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC TO 25N BETWEEN 63W-80W SUPPORTING A DEVELOPING COLD FRONT THAT IS JUST N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF A LINE FROM 27N79W TO BEYOND 32N72W. A REMNANT STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS IN THE W/CENTRAL ATLC ENTERING NEAR 32N59W AND CONTINUES ALONG 29N67W ACROSS THE BAHAMAS NEAR 25N76W TO ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA NEAR SANTA CLARA. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS FROM THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO BEYOND 32N44W. AN ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 26N14W THROUGH AN UPPER LOW NEAR 21N23W ALONG 14N43W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 6N54W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1040 MB HIGH NEAR THE AZORES. STATIONARY FRONT WILL COMPLETELY DISSIPATE TONIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL RACE ACROSS THE N WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND SUN MERGING WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE STATIONARY FRONT SUN NIGHT. THE RESULTANT WEAK BOUNDARY WILL RETROGRADE INTO THE SE BAHAMAS MON WHILE GRADUALLY DISSIPATE. A THIRD COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF NE FLORIDA LATE MON STALLING ACROSS THE NW PORTION TUE WITH A REINFORCING FRONT OVERTAKING IT BY WED. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW