000
AXNT20 KNHC 252343
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SAT JAN 25 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE... 
                             
AN ATLC GALE WARNING WILL GO INTO EFFECT WITHIN THE NEXT 12 
HOURS ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 29N W OF 74W FOR FREQUENT GUSTS TO 
GALE FORCE DUE TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS WARNING WILL 
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. PLEASE SEE THE HIGH SEAS 
FORECAST UNDER WMO/AWIPS HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC AND THE 
OFFSHORE FORECAST UNDER WMO/AWIPS HEADERS MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC 
FOR MORE DETAILS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...  
                            
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS SW OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA AT 05N08W 
TO 01S16W AND THEN TRANSITIONS TO THE ITCZ TO 03S25W TO 01N36W 
TO THE SOUTH AMERICAN COAST AT THE EQUATOR. SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED FROM 02N TO 04N W OF 49W 
INTO SOUTH AMERICA.  
 
...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...                                               
A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS THROUGH CENTRAL SOUTH 
CAROLINA ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE STRAITS OF 
FLORIDA WITH CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS MOST OF THE EASTERN HALF OF 
THE GULF. AT THE SURFACE A TROUGH IS LOCATED FROM THE CENTRAL 
FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO A WEAK 1019 MB LOW NEAR 29N87W TO 26N90W TO 
A 1021 MB LOW NEAR 22N93W. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT 
EXTENDS FROM THE 22N93W LOW TO THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE TO 
17N94W TO 20N97W. A 1021 MB HIGH IS LOCATED OFF THE W COAST OF 
FLORIDA NEAR 27N84W. A 1026 MB HIGH IS LOCATED ALONG THE LOWER 
TEXAS COAST AND IS MOVING SOUTH. BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW/MIDDLE 
LEVEL CLOUDS COVER A LARGE PART OF THE GULF NW OF A LINE FROM 
29N83W TO 18N93W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...                                                
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN ASSOCIATED WITH AN 
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER COLOMBIA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY 
INDICATES STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER THE ENTIRE BASIN. MODERATE 
WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT COVER MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN AND ARE 
FORECAST TO BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. AN 
ENHANCED AREA OF CLOUDINESS IS LOCATED FROM 14N TO 17N BETWEEN 
68W AND 73W...MOVING WEST. AT THE SURFACE A STATIONARY FRONT IS 
LOCATED FROM THE CUBA COAST AT 80W TO 17N84W.
 
HISPANIOLA...                                                
VERY DRY ALOFT COVERS HISPANIOLA. ENHANCED CLOUDINESS WITH 
POSSIBLE SHOWERS COVERS THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN 
REPUBLIC. 
 
ATLANTIC...                                                     
THE MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MENTIONED ABOVE IN THE GULF OF 
MEXICO SECTION CONTINUES EASTWARD TO 65W N OF 23N. A JET IS 
LOCATED FROM THE NORTH CENTRAL BAHAMAS THROUGH 32N67W AND IS 
STRONGEST N OF ABOUT 28N. A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS 
LOCATED FROM NEAR 20N60W TO BEYOND 32N48W. A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL 
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION...ABOUT 7 DEGREES IN DIAMETER...IS LOCATED 
NEAR 18N43W AND IS MOVING W 10 TO 15 KNOTS. ANOTHER MIDDLE/UPPER 
LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS LOCATED NEAR 22N22W AND IS MOVING 
SLOWLY WEST. A 10 TO 12 DEGREE WIDE BAND OF SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 
ALOFT IS CENTERED FROM THE AFRICAN COAST AT 15N TO 10N30W TO 
04N50W. AT THE SURFACE A TROUGH IS LOCATED THROUGH 32N58W TO 
27N70W TO THE CUBA COAST AT 79W AND IS MARKED BY A BAND OF 
CLOUDS ABOUT 4 DEGREES WIDE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
CAB