000 AXNT20 KNHC 250540 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST SAT JAN 25 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT S OF 21N W OF 95W BEHIND A COLD FRONT THROUGH TONIGHT UNTIL SAT MONRING. PLEASE SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER WMO/AWIPS HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST UNDER WMO/AWIPS HEADERS MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. W ATLC GALE WARNING WILL GO INTO EFFECT SAT EVENING N OF 29N W OF 78W FOR FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE W OF A FRONT THAT WILL MOVE OFF NE FLORIDA. THIS WARNING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUN EVENING. PLEASE SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER WMO/AWIPS HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST UNDER WMO/AWIPS HEADERS MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 7N13W AND CONTINUES TO 3N20W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 1N28W 3N39W S OF THE EQUATOR AND INTO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 46W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 5N TO JUST S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 3N-15N. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E CONUS AND INTO THE W ATLC AND DIPS S OVER THE N GULF TO 28N SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE GULF FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR MIAMI AND CONTINUES ALONG 25N86W TO 25N93W WHERE IT TURNS S INTO THE MEXICO JUST E OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. NORTHERLY WINDS TO GALE FORCE ARE BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE SW GULF. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WELL N OF THE FRONT N OF 27N E OF 94W TO INLAND OVER THE N GULF COAST. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WATERS ARE UNDER NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. OVERCAST LOW TO MID CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS COVER THE GULF N OF 25N BETWEEN 88W-94W AND THE W GULF W OF 94W. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SE GULF S OF THE FRONT TO NW CUBA BETWEEN 82W-85W. THE COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE BY LATE SAT. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN GULF SAT AND MOVE NE ACROSS THE N/CENTRAL GULF THROUGH SUN BEFORE DISSIPATING OVER THE NE GULF. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO THE N WATERS BY MON. CARIBBEAN SEA... A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED INLAND OVER COLOMBIA. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWERS STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR OVER THE CARIBBEAN E OF 75W. REMNANT MOISTURE FROM A DISSIPATED FRONT/SHEAR LINE REMAINS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60/75 NM OF LINE FROM SE CUBA NEAR 20N77W TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS NEAR 16N88W INCLUDING THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE OVER THE W AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH WINDS APPROACHING GALE FORCE OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THESE TRADE WINDS ARE ALSO GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER SW HAITI AND WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE COAST OF W PANAMA AND COSTA RICA W OF 81W TO THE NICARAGUA BORDER. TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SAT. HISPANIOLA... SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE PRESENTLY OVER SW HAITI. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK LIMITING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM FORMING. HOWEVER THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GIVE THE ISLAND ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH MON. ATLANTIC... THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS AND N GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE NW ATLC SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE AREA JUST W OF BERMUDA NEAR 32N66W AND EXTENDS ALONG 27N73W ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR MIAMI. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE MOVING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS NE FLORIDA INTO THE W ATLC FROM 28N-30N W OF 80W. A REMNANT STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS INTO THE W/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N58W AND CONTINUES ALONG 27N63W TO E CUBA NEAR 20N75W. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS FROM THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO BEYOND 32N45W. AN ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER LOW ALONG THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 25N15W ALONG 21N35W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 8N59W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1040 HIGH NEAR THE AZORES. STATIONARY FRONT WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH SAT. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SE THROUGH TONIGHT AND STALL FROM NEAR BERMUDA THROUGH NW BAHAMAS TO SE FLORIDA SAT MORNING THEN AND DISSIPATE BY LATE SAT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE N WATERS LATE SAT AND SUN AND MERGE WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE PREVIOUS FRONT SUN NIGHT. THE RESULTANT WEAK BOUNDARY WILL RETROGRADE INTO THE SE BAHAMAS MON INTO TUE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW