000 AXNT20 KNHC 250021 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST FRI JAN 24 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE OVER THE SW GULF OF MEXICO BEHIND A COLD FRONT FROM 21N-24N WEST OF 96W. THE GALE IS FORECAST TO END AT 25/1800 UTC. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST... MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST... MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL AREAS OF SIERRA LEONE NEAR 8N12W TO 5N17W TO 3N23W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 3N23W TO 2N27W AND 3N38W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 5N-7N BETWEEN 12W-16W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM S FLORIDA AT 26N80W TO 26N93W TO 20N94W TO 18N95W. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE OVER THE SW GULF OF MEXICO BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. SEE ABOVE. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE N OF FRONT OVER THE W GULF AND N OF 27N OVER THE NE GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW IS NOW NOTED. THE FRONT SHOULD THUS NOT PUSH MUCH FURTHER TO THE SOUTH. EXPECT A WEAK LOW TO FORM ON THE FRONT OVER THE NE GULF OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... AS OF 2100 UTC...A SHEAR LINE HAS DISSIPATED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA HOWEVER SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS. 15-30 KT TRADE WINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. SHOWERS ARE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...BELIZE ...GUATEMALA...HONDURAS....NICARAGUA...AND COSTA RICA. MORE SHOWERS ARE OVER JAMAICA...HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...AND THE LEEWARD ISLAND. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HISPANIOLA... SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE PRESENTLY OVER HISPANIOLA WITH TRADE WIND FLOW. UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IS PREVENTING THUNDERSTORM FORMATION. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC... AS OF 2100 UTC... A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 30N70W TO S FLORIDA AT 26N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE FRONT. A STATIONARY FRONT IS ALSO OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 30N60W TO E CUBA AT 20N75W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT N OF 27N. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT. A LARGE 1037 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 37N21W. EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO APPROACH THE STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA