000 AXNT20 KNHC 241802 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST FRI JAN 24 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. A GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT IS ALONG 27N82W 26N95W 19.5N96.5W. GALE-FORCE NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 45 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 9 TO 15 FEET TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE COLD FRONT FROM 26N TO 28N TO THE WEST OF 94W. OTHER GALE-FORCE NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 50 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS BUILDING 8 TO 16 FEET ARE TO THE WEST OF THE COLD FRONT FROM 21N TO 26N. EXPECT ALSO NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 30 KNOTS ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF THE COLD FRONT TO THE EAST OF 95W. SEA HEIGHTS TO 10 FEET TO THE WEST OF 86W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST... MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST... MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL AREAS OF SIERRA LEONE NEAR 8N12W TO 5N17W TO 3N23W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 3N23W TO 2N27W AND 3N38W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG TO THE SOUTH OF 10N TO THE EAST OF 52W. ...DISCUSSION... ...FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO... AND INCLUDING THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW SPANS THE GULF OF MEXICO. A TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 33N75W IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL/CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N65W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA TO 24N86W IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...TO 21N98W ALONG THE MEXICO COAST. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...AS DEPICTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...COVERS THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N68W...TO FLORIDA NEAR 28N81W...INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...TO 26N95W AND 21N98W ALONG THE MEXICO COAST...TO 25N102W IN MEXICO. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS COVER THE GULF WATERS AND THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAS BUILT SOUTHWARD FROM TEXAS ACROSS INTERIOR MEXICO. GALE-FORCE WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/ FZPN03 KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC... AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...THE 12-HOUR FORECAST COLD FRONT FROM 30N89W TO 27N97W. EXPECT NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 30 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS BUILDING TO 8 FEET TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE FRONT TO THE WEST OF 90W. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA THAT IS TO THE WEST OF 70W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY AND NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA THAT IS TO THE EAST OF 70W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...AS DEPICTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...COVERS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA TOWARD JAMAICA. A SHEAR AXIS CONTINUES FROM 20N76W TO 19N80W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO 17N86W. CLOUDS AND CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...TO 16N76W AND 10N78W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 24/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.89 IN MONTEGO BAY IN JAMAICA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...IN LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS...TO THE EAST OF THE SHEAR AXIS AND ITS CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION. OTHER 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 24/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...ARE 0.14 IN SAN JUAN IN PUERTO RICO...AND 0.13 IN GUADELOUPE. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N/10N BETWEEN 83W AND 90W. RUNS FROM 4N74W IN COLOMBIA TO 1N80W ALONG THE COAST OF ECUADOR. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS NOT CONTINUOUS AFTER 80W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS RELATED DIRECTLY TO THE MONSOON TROUGH IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC... AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 11 FEET FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 72W AND 79W. A SECOND AREA OF CONCERN CONSISTS OF THE 12-HOUR FORECAST OF NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET FROM 18N TO 21N TO THE EAST OF 81W. ...HISPANIOLA... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS CROSSING HISPANIOLA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE... AS DEPICTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...COVERS HISPANIOLA. SKY CONDITIONS AND CURRENT WEATHER FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC... LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING OBSERVED IN SANTO DOMINGO AND LA ROMANA. SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED IN PUNTA CANA AND IN SANTIAGO. FEW LOW CLOUDS COVER BARAHONA AND PUERTO PLATA. FEW LOW CLOUDS COVER PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT WESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA WITH A RIDGE. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS THE AREA...WITH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED RIDGE FOR THE FIRST 30 HOURS OR SO. SOUTHWESTERLY WIND WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR ANOTHER 12 HOURS OR SO...RELATED TO THE FLOW AROUND A TROUGH. THE TROUGH WILL BE PUSHED NORTHWESTWARD...AND MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL REACH HISPANIOLA WITH A CONTINUATION OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN- TO-CARIBBEAN SEA NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED RIDGE. . THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT EASTERLY AND NORTHEASTERLY WIND WILL COVER THE AREA FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS OR SO...WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH. THE TROUGH WILL BE PUSHED TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. PRIMARILY SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA WITH THE RETURN OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO- CARIBBEAN SEA NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED RIDGE. ...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF 50W...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS AND SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS PASSING OVER THIS AREA. A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N53W TO 29N60W 24N70W... ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS NEAR 22N73W...TO SOUTHEASTERN CUBA NEAR 20N76W. A SHEAR AXIS CONTINUES FROM 20N76W TO 19N80W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO 17N86W. CLOUDS AND CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...TO 16N76W AND 10N78W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 24/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES... MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.89 IN MONTEGO BAY IN JAMAICA. CLOUDS AND CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N52W TO 27N60W 24N70W 20N74W. ...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION TROUGH IS ALONG 31N31W 22N34W 16N42W 12N50W 8N58W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...AS DEPICTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AROUND THE TROUGH. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE TROUGH...IN LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 19N TO THE EAST OF 22W...ACROSS AFRICA. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N42W TO 29N50W 25N56W AND 20N70W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N TO 20N TO THE EAST OF 60W...AND TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE EAST OF THE 32N53W 24N70W STATIONARY FRONT. A 1040 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 37N22W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...N OF 20N E OF 66W TO LINE FROM 31N45W TO 20N58W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT IN NW TO N SWELL. FROM 13N TO 21N BETWEEN E OF 54W NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT. ELSEWHERE E OF 59W S OF LINE FROM 28N35W TO 21N59W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN NE SWELL. A SECOND AREA OF INTEREST CONSISTS OF A COLD FRONT FROM 31N73.5W TO 28N81W. N OF 29N W OF 78W NW WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT. A THIRD AREA OF INTEREST CONSISTS OF A 24-HOUR FORECAST STATIONARY FRONT FROM 31N72W TO 2.5N80W. N OF 30N W OF FRONT TO 82W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 8 FT IN N SWELL. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT