000 AXNT20 KNHC 240549 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST FRI JAN 24 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WATERS THIS EVENING THAT IS FORECAST TO PRODUCE GALE FORCE N TO NE WINDS NORTH OF THE FRONT W OF 94W. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 07N12W TO 02N24W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 02N24W TO 02N30W TO 06N44W TO 05N48W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 01N-05N BETWEEN 18W-35W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... GENERALLY WESTERLY MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS EVENING OVER THE GULF WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED TO THE NORTH WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION W-SW TO OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS TROUGHING SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA NEAR 30N83W W-SW TO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA NEAR 29N90W TO THE TEXAS GULF COAST NEAR 27N97W. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT AND N OF 22N W OF 94W ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF WATERS. MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION INLAND ACROSS THE GULF COASTAL PLAIN STRETCHING FROM SOUTHERN ALABAMA WESTWARD TO MUCH OF EASTERN TEXAS. THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD AS THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH FRIDAY WITH SURFACE TROUGHING REMAINING ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF AS RIDGING BUILDS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN MEXICO COAST. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF THROUGH THE WEEKEND BECOMING ABSORBED WITHIN THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF RIDGING EXPECTED TO ONCE AGAIN INFLUENCE THE GULF ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS. CARIBBEAN SEA... SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT SHIFT SLIGHTLY MORE WESTERLY THEN NORTHWESTERLY E OF 70W AS WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER DRY AND STABLE AIR IN THE UPPER LEVELS THIS EVENING. THE ONLY AREA OF SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ACROSS THE BASIN IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SHEAR LINE ANALYZED FROM EASTERN CUBA W-SW TO THE NORTHERN BELIZE COAST NEAR 18N88W. AS THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT...THE SHEAR LINE NOTES A CHANGE IN AIRMASS COMPOSITION AS WELL AS STRONGER WINDS TO THE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 15N W OF 76W. THE BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY BECOME DIFFUSE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE THINS OUT AND DRIER CONDITIONS BEGIN TO PREVAIL. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN SOUTH AND EAST OF THE BOUNDARY IS RELATIVELY TRANQUIL AS TRADES PERSIST IN THE RANGE OF 15 TO 25 KT WITH THE STRONGEST WIND EXPECTED IN THE VICINITY OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. A FEW PASSING LOW-TOPPED ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY IN THE THE VICINITY OF HISPANIOLA N OF 16N BETWEEN 68W-74W. ...HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE ISLAND AND IN THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS GENERALLY N OF 16N BETWEEN 68W- 74W AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS ANALYZED TO THE NW FROM THE SE BAHAMAS W-SW TO THE COAST OF BELIZE NEAR 18N88W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS AS THE BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AND MOISTURE THINS OUT. ATLANTIC OCEAN... VERY BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND NORTHWESTERN NORTH ATLC THAT SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM SOUTH CAROLINA TO NORTHERN FLORIDA AND INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WATERS. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC WATERS OVERNIGHT AND USHERING IN ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG N-NW WINDS FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING N OF 30N W OF 70W TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT. FARTHER EAST...THE TROUGHING ALSO SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT ANALYZED INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N55W SW TO THE SE BAHAMAS NEAR 22N73W AND INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA AS A SHEAR LINE. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. FARTHER EAST OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC...A RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1039 MB HIGH CENTERED EAST OF THE AZORES NEAR 38N22W CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE BASIN E OF 55W AND PROVIDE RELATIVELY FAIR CONDITIONS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GALE FORCE NORTHEASTERLIES OFF THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA IN THE VICINITY OF THE CANARY ISLANDS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN