000 AXNT20 KNHC 232344 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST THU JAN 23 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... A COLD FRONT HAS STARTED TO EMERGE OFF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AND IS FORECAST TO BRING GALE FORCE NORTHERLY-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS NORTH OF THE FRONT WEST OF 92W STARTING AT 24/0600 UTC. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE WEST AFRICAN COAST NEAR 07N11W TO 03N20W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 03N20W TO 01N30W TO 0N39W. CONVECTION...SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM 01N-07N EAST OF 20W AND FROM 0N-05N BETWEEN 15W-35W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A COLD FRONT HAS STARTED TO EMERGE OFF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST EXTENDING ALONG A WEAKNESS WITHIN THE SURFACE RIDGE THAT COVERS THE GULF AND IS ANCHORED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY A 1046 MB HIGH. AS OF 2100 UTC...THE COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM PANAMA CITY NEAR 30N85W TO SE LOUISIANA NEAR 29N89W TO CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS NEAR 27N96W. IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVELS...A BROAD TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS EASTERN U.S. WITH BASE EXTENDING INTO THE NORTHERN GULF SUPPORTS THE COLD FRONT. RADAR IMAGERY SHOW SHOW SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER TEXAS WHICH EXTENDS INTO THE NW GULF N OF 26N WEST OF 87W. EASTERLY-SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW IN THE RANGE OF 10-15 KT IS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WEST OF THE FRONT BY 24/0600 UTC. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. CLEAR SKIES COVER THE REMAINDER BASIN BEING SUPPORTED BY DRY AIR AT THE MIDDLE AND LOWER LEVELS. BY FRIDAY MORNING...THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO START DISSIPATING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF WITH GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE WESTERN GULF. A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE WILL ONCE AGAIN BUILD IN ACROSS THE BASIN STARTING SAT MORNING. CARIBBEAN SEA... A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM EASTERN U.S. TO THE WESTERN ATLC WITH A BASE EXTENDING TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT THAT ENTERS EASTERN CUBA AND TRANSITIONS INTO A SHEAR LINE ALONG 20N75W TO 17N80W. REMNANT ISOLATED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FORMER FRONT ARE FROM 16N- 21N WEST OF 77W. DRY AIR AND OVERALL SUBSIDENCE PREVAILS ACROSS THE REMAINDER BASIN SUPPORTING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. HOWEVER...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ENHANCES ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE MONA PASSAGE AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. OTHERWISE...TRADEWINDS OF 15 KT DOMINATES EXCEPT WITHIN 160 NM OF THE NORTHER COLOMBIA COAST WHERE WINDS ARE UP TO 25 KT. THE SHEAR LINE IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE LATER TODAY AND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE WEATHER ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUN MORNING. ...HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING IN THE WINDWARD AND MONA PASSAGES. SHOWERS OVER THE MONA PASSAGE ARE DRIFTING WESTWARD TO ENHANCE ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLAND TONIGHT. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM EASTERN U.S. TO THE WESTERN ATLC WITH BASE OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS SUPPORTS A FRONTAL SYSTEM ANALYZED AS A STATIONARY FRONT FROM 30N58W TO 24N67W TO EASTERN CUBA NEAR 20N75W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 80 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1039 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 38N21W WHICH IS PROVIDING WITH STABLE CONDITIONS AND FAIR WEATHER. THE STATIONARY FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY SATURDAY MORNING. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ NR