000 AXNT20 KNHC 231804 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST THU JAN 23 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... THE 18-HOUR FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO CONSISTS OF NORTHEASTERLY GALE-FORCE WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 11 FEET TO BE THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 94W. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE ALONG 28N82W 25N97W. EXPECT ALSO NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 30 KNOTS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE FRONT...AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET TO THE WEST OF 92W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST... MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST... MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL BORDER AREA OF SIERRA LEONE AND LIBERIA THAT IS NEAR 7N11W TO 3N20W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 3N20W TO 2N27W 1N31W 1N35W...AND TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 40W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG TO THE SOUTH OF 7N11W 5N20W 4N30W 3N38W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 3N TO 10N BETWEEN 30W AND 46W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW SPANS THE GULF OF MEXICO. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N72W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS FLORIDA TO THE NORTH OF 29N...TO 26N90W AND 24N98W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...AS DEPICTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...COVERS THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS THAT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD FROM TEXAS ACROSS INTERIOR MEXICO. GALE- FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. A SEPARATE 1027 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE FLORIDA/GEORGIA BORDER NEAR 31N83W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF 26N TO THE EAST OF 90W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 87W/88W... CLEAR SKIES/FAIR SKIES ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET. FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM TEXAS TO FLORIDA... LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER WESLACO...EDINBURG...AND MCALLEN IN THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF TEXAS. MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS COVER TEXAS FROM FALFURRIAS TO THE CORPUS CHRISTI METROPOLITAN AREA...TO VICTORIA/PORT LAVACA/PALACIOS...AND TO BAY CITY...TO THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA...AND TO THE BEAUMONT/PORT ARTHUR AREA. SIMILAR CLOUDS COVER THE SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL COASTAL SECTIONS OF LOUISIANA. A LOW CLOUD CEILING COVERS HAMMOND LOUISIANA. MIDDLE LEVEL AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE AROUND THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. A HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILING COVERS BILOXI MISSISSIPPI AND MOBILE ALABAMA. HIGH CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE PENSACOLA METROPOLITAN AREA...VALPARAISO...AND PARTS OF THE PANAMA CITY FLORIDA METROPOLITAN AREA AND IN TALLAHASSEE. CLEAR SKIES/FAIR SKIES ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC... AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...THE 12-HOUR FORECAST COLD FRONT FROM 30N89W TO 27N97W. EXPECT NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 30 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS BUILDING TO 8 FEET TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE FRONT TO THE WEST OF 90W. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW SPANS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...AS DEPICTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A SHEAR AXIS PASSES THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...TO EASTERN JAMAICA TO 15N80W...TO THE COAST OF COSTA RICA NEAR 10N. SCATTEROMETER WIND DATA WERE SHOWING WIND SPEEDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE SHEAR AXIS...AND WIND SPEEDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE SHEAR AXIS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 200 NM TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE SHEAR AXIS. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...IN LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS...TO THE EAST OF THE SHEAR AXIS. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 23/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...ARE 0.15 IN KINGSTON IN JAMAICA...0.10 IN TRINIDAD...AND 0.03 IN GUADELOUPE. THE MONSOON TROUGH RUNS FROM 4N74W IN COLOMBIA TO 1N80W ALONG THE COAST OF ECUADOR. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS NOT CONTINUOUS AFTER 80W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS RELATED DIRECTLY TO THE MONSOON TROUGH IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. ISOLATED MODERATE IS TO THE SOUTH OF 8N TO THE EAST OF 90W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC... AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 10 FEET FROM 10.5N TO 15N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W. ...HISPANIOLA... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW SPANS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE ALSO COVERS HISPANIOLA. SKY CONDITIONS AND CURRENT WEATHER FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC... A LOW CLOUD CEILING IS BEING OBSERVED IN LA ROMANA. SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED IN SANTO DOMINGO...IN SANTIAGO... AND IN PUERTO PLATA. FEW LOW CLOUDS COVER BARAHONA AND PUNTA CANA. FEW LOW CLOUDS COVER PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA WITH A RIDGE. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS THE AREA...WITH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO- CARIBBEAN SEA NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED RIDGE. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT EASTERLY AND NORTHEASTERLY WIND WILL COVER THE AREA. ...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF 55W...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND EASTERN CUBA...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS PASSING OVER THIS AREA. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N56W TO 26N64W... ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS NEAR 22N73W...TO SOUTHEASTERN CUBA NEAR 20N76W. THE FRONT BECOMES A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT FROM 20N76W TO 19N80W AND 18N87W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. CLOUDS AND CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN 300 NM TO THE WEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N48W 27N55W 23N65W 20N71W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...AND ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA THAT IS TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION THAT ACCOMPANY THE WINDWARD PASSAGE-TO-COSTA RICA SHEAR AXIS. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 23/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.20 IN BERMUDA. ...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 16N36W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS COVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N TO 21N BETWEEN 30W AND 50W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 15N TO 20N BETWEEN 32W AND 40W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH MOROCCO NEAR 32N7W TO 24N20W AND 18N24W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N39W TO 28N47W AND 27N55W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N TO 20N TO THE EAST OF 60W...AND TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE EAST OF 60W AND TO THE EAST OF THE THE 32N56W-TO-SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS COLD FRONT. A 1040 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 40N21W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...A COLD FRONT FROM 31N57W TO 20N74W. N OF 23N W OF FRONT TO 77W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 15 FT IN NW SWELL...HIGHEST SEAS NEAR 30N68W. N OF 30N WITHIN 360 NM E OF FRONT SW WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. FROM 23N TO 30N WITHIN 180 NM OF SE FRONT WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 10 FT IN NW SWELL. A SECOND AREA OF INTEREST CONSISTS OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 18N TO 24N E OF 45W NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 10 FT. ELSEWHERE S OF 26N E OF 52W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 9 FT PRIMARILY IN MIXED N AND E SWELL. A THIRD AREA OF INTEREST CONSISTS OF THE 24-HOUR FORECAST OF A COLD FRONT FROM 31N75W TO 28N80W. N OF 30N W OF 78W NW WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT