000 AXNT20 KNHC 231141 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST THU JAN 23 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COAST THURSDAY WITH GALE FORCE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS EXPECTED TO INITIATE WEST OF THE FRONT AT 24/0600 UTC. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 08N13W TO 02N24W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 02N24W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 30W THEN ALONG THE EQUATOR TO 41W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 01N-05N BETWEEN 09W- 20W...AND FROM 01N-03N BETWEEN 20W-29W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 09N BETWEEN 29W-43W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS OVER THE GULF THIS MORNING FROM 29N84W SW TO A BASE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC REGION NEAR 13N100W. THE TROUGHING REMAINS ALOFT AND IS LARGELY TRUMPED BY WESTERLY FLOW IN THE MID-LEVELS STRETCHING FROM NW MEXICO EASTWARD TO OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC. AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS THE GULF FOCUSED ON A PAIR OF 1024 MB HIGHS CENTERED NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA REGION NEAR 30N90W AND ACROSS SE ALABAMA NEAR 31N86W. THE RIDGING IS EXPECTED REMAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT EMERGES OFF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS TODAY MOVING RAPIDLY EASTWARD USHERING STRONG NORTHEASTERLIES ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH LATE FRIDAY. THEREAFTER...A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE WILL ONCE AGAIN BUILD IN AND INFLUENCE THE BASIN FOR THE DURATION OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. CARIBBEAN SEA... SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT SHIFT SLIGHTLY MORE WESTERLY THEN NORTHWESTERLY E OF 70W AS WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER DRY AND STABLE AIR IN THE UPPER LEVELS THIS MORNING. THE ONLY AREA OF ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS THE BASIN IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM EASTERN CUBA W-SW TO THE NORTHERN BELIZE COAST NEAR 18N87W. AS THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT...THE SURFACE TROUGH NOTES A CHANGE IN AIRMASS COMPOSITION AS COOLER...DRIER CANADIAN AIR FILTERS IN OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND SHALLOW LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE NOTED SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY INFERS A WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIRMASS. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN FROM HISPANIOLA W-SW TO CENTRAL AMERICA IN THE VICINITY OF HONDURAS. THE SURFACE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY BECOME DIFFUSE OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS AS LOW- LEVEL MOISTURE THINS OUT AND DRIER CONDITIONS BEGIN TO PREVAIL. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN EAST OF THE BOUNDARY IS RELATIVELY TRANQUIL THIS MORNING AS TRADES PERSIST IN THE RANGE OF 15 TO 25 KT WITH THE STRONGEST WIND EXPECTED IN THE VICINITY OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. ...HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE ISLAND GENERALLY W OF 70W AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS ANALYZED TO THE NW FROM THE TURKS AND CAICOS W-SW TO THE COAST OF BELIZE NEAR 18N87W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS AS THE BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE REGION. ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. AND NORTHWESTERN NORTH ATLC THAT SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N60W SW TO THE TURKS AND CAICOS NEAR 22N72W AND INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA VIA EASTERN CUBA. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. FARTHER EAST OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC...A RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1035 MB HIGH CENTERED SW OF THE AZORES NEAR 36N35W CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE BASIN E OF 55W AND PROVIDE RELATIVELY FAIR CONDITIONS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN