000 AXNT20 KNHC 230553 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST THU JAN 23 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COAST THURSDAY WITH GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED TO INITIATE WEST OF THE FRONT AT 24/0600 UTC. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 07N12W TO 04N19W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 04N19W TO 02N27W TO 05N40W TO 05N43W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 01N-06N BETWEEN 12W-25W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 09N BETWEEN 25W-43W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS OVER THE GULF THIS EVENING FROM 26N92W S-SW TO A BASE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC REGION NEAR 13N100W. THE TROUGHING REMAINS ALOFT AND IS LARGELY TRUMPED BY WESTERLY FLOW IN THE MID-LEVELS STRETCHING FROM NW MEXICO EASTWARD TO OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC. AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS THE GULF FOCUSED ON A 1023 MB CENTERED NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA REGION NEAR 29N90W. THE RIDGING IS EXPECTED REMAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT EMERGES OFF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS BY THURSDAY MOVING RAPIDLY EASTWARD USHERING STRONG NORTHEASTERLIES ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH LATE FRIDAY. THEREAFTER...A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE WILL ONCE AGAIN BUILD IN ACROSS THE BASIN DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. CARIBBEAN SEA... SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT SHIFT SLIGHTLY MORE WESTERLY E OF 70W AS WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER DRY AND STABLE AIR IN THE UPPER LEVELS THIS EVENING. THE ONLY AREA OF ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS THE BASIN IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A STATIONARY FRONT ANALYZED FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE NEAR 20N75W SW TO WESTERN JAMAICA THEN TO 13N82W. SHALLOW LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO POOL IN THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING BETWEEN A LINE FROM 19N70W TO 10N82W...AND A LINE FROM 21N78W TO 18N88W...INCLUDING PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA... JAMAICA...AND CENTRAL AMERICA FROM 10N-18N. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME DIFFUSE OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS AS LOW- LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS AND DRIER CONDITIONS BEGIN TO PREVAIL. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN EAST OF THE FRONT IS RELATIVELY TRANQUIL THIS EVENING AS TRADES PERSIST IN THE RANGE OF 15 TO 25 KT WITH THE STRONGEST WIND EXPECTED IN THE VICINITY OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. ...HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE ISLAND GENERALLY W OF 70W AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS ANALYZED TO THE NW FROM THE TURKS AND CAICOS SW TO WESTERN JAMAICA. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE REGION. ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. AND NORTHWESTERN NORTH ATLC THAT SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N60W SW TO THE TURKS AND CAICOS NEAR 22N72W AND INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA VIA THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. FARTHER EAST OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC...A RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1035 MB HIGH CENTERED SW OF THE AZORES NEAR 34N35W CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE THE BASIN E OF 55W AND PROVIDE RELATIVELY FAIR CONDITIONS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN