000
AXNT20 KNHC 222347
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
705 PM EST WED JAN 22 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                                     
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE WEST AFRICAN COAST NEAR 
07N12W TO 04N16W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS 
EXTENDS FROM 04N16W TO 01N28W TO 0N40W. CONVECTION...SCATTERED 
MODERATE AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM 04N-07N EAST OF 15W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 200 NM BETWEEN 13W-20W AND FROM 0N-06N 
BETWEEN 20W-41W.  

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...                                               
A SURFACE RIDGE IS ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH CENTERED SOUTH OF 
LOUISIANA NEAR 28N90W THAT IS PROVIDING ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW 
IN THE RANGE OF 5-15 KT ACROSS THE BASIN. BOTH WATER VAPOR AND 
SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW DRY AIR ACROSS THE GULF WHICH IS 
SUPPORTING CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR WEATHER. RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO 
CONTINUE ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH THU NIGHT WHEN THE NEXT COLD 
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE NW BASIN. BY FRIDAY MORNING THE 
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE 
CENTRAL GULF. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE TO DEVELOP IN THE NW 
GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...                                                
A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM EASTERN U.S. 
TO THE WESTERN ATLC WITH BASE OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS SUPPORTS 
A FRONTAL SYSTEM ANALYZED AS A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT FROM 
EASTERN CUBA NEAR 19N76W TO 15N81W TO 10N82W. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE 
CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY SUPPORTS ISOLATED 
SHOWERS WITHIN 160 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT...INCLUDING THE 
WINDWARD PASSAGE AS WELL AS WESTERN AND CENTRAL HISPANIOLA. 
MOSTLY DRY AIR AND OVERALL SUBSIDENCE PREVAILS ACROSS THE 
REMAINDER BASIN SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. NORTHERLY WINDS OF 15 
KT ARE WEST OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHILE TRADES OF 10-15 KT 
DOMINATE ELSEWHERE EAST OF IT. REMNANT SHOWERS FROM THE 
DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER THE NW 
BASIN THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON. THE PORTION OF THE FRONT IN THE 
ATLC CURRENTLY ANALYZED AS A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO 
TRANSITION TO A STATIONARY FRONT REACHING EASTERN CUBA AND 
JAMAICA FRI MORNING. 

...HISPANIOLA...                                        
CURRENTLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND 
WESTERN ISLAND ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 
THE SW N ATLC TO EASTERN CUBA. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO 
PERSIST THROUGHOUT FRI MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO 
STALL OVER EASTERN CUBA. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...                                               
A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM EASTERN U.S. 
TO THE WESTERN ATLC WITH BASE OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS SUPPORTS 
A FRONTAL SYSTEM ANALYZED AS A COLD FRONT FROM 30N62W TO 24N69W 
TO EASTERN CUBA NEAR 20N75W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 160 NM 
EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND 
EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED 
BY A 1034 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 34N34W WHICH IS PROVIDING WITH 
STABLE CONDITIONS AND FAIR WEATHER. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED 
TO STALL BY FRIDAY MORNING WHILE A NEW COLD FRONT ENTERS THE SW 
NORTH ATLC.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR