000 AXNT20 KNHC 221801 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST WED JAN 22 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT IS ALONG 31N65W 20N75W. A SECOND COLD FRONT IS ALONG 31N69W 23N80W. EXPECT SOUTH-TO-SOUTHWEST GALE-FORCE WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS 9 TO 13 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 25N WITHIN 270 NM TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE FIRST FRONT. EXPECT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 23N TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT TO 59W. EXPECT SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS 20 TO 30 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 13 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 25N BETWEEN THE FRONTS. EXPECT ALSO NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 30 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 13 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 24N TO THE WEST OF THE SECOND FRONT. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SIERRA LEONE NEAR 7N12W TO 4N16W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 4N16W TO 1N23W 1N37W TO 1N40W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...DISORGANIZED WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG TO THE SOUTH OF 7N BETWEEN 8W AND 40W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 55W TO THE SOUTH OF 7N...MOSTLY INLAND ACROSS GUYANA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS TROUGH. ...DISCUSSION... ...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF BERMUDA...ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS...INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...INCLUDING THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CUTS THROUGH THE WESTERNMOST PART OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS...THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS...TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS...THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS...ACROSS THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. COLD AIR HAS SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.A. AND THE GULF OF MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 30 NM TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N61W TO 28N64W AND 24N68W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALSO WITHIN 250 NM TO THE WEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N60W TO 20N72W. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAS BEEN BUILDING SOUTHWARD FROM TEXAS ACROSS INTERIOR MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE GALE-FORCE WINDS FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 87W/88W... THE COLD FRONT IS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. CLEAR SKIES/FAIR SKIES ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET. FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM TEXAS TO FLORIDA... LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE KEY WEST METROPOLITAN AREA. CLEAR SKIES/FAIR SKIES ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC... AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...A COLD FRONT FROM 24N80W TO 20N91W TO 18N93W. EXPECT NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 11 FEET TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT TO THE EAST OF 89W. EXPECT ALSO WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 10 FEET ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT TO 24N AND WEST TO 95W. FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS AND SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT IS ALONG 32N64W 26N70W 23N73W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 23N73W...ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...TO 18N80W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...CURVING TO 13N83W ALONG THE COAST OF NICARAGUA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE WEST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM CENTRAL HISPANIOLA TO 14N79W AND 9N80W ALONG THE PANAMA COAST. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 22/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.80 IN BERMUDA. ...THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW SPANS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...AS DEPICTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...IN LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS...POSSIBLY MORE CONCENTRATED TO THE NORTHEAST OF 11N62W 14N70W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 22/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.42 IN GUADELOUPE. THE MONSOON TROUGH RUNS FROM 9N80W IN PANAMA BEYOND 7N83W INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS RELATED DIRECTLY TO THE MONSOON TROUGH IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IS FROM 1N TO 6N TO THE EAST OF 90W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC... AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 10 FEET FROM 10.5N TO 15N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W. ...HISPANIOLA... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW SPANS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE ALSO COVERS HISPANIOLA. SKY CONDITIONS AND CURRENT WEATHER FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC... SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED IN LA ROMANA. FEW LOW CLOUDS COVER BARAHONA...SANTO DOMINGO...PUNTA CANA... SANTIAGO...AND IN PUERTO PLATA. FEW LOW CLOUDS COVER PORT-AU- PRINCE IN HAITI. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT WESTERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA WITH A RIDGE. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS THE AREA...WITH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED RIDGE. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHEASTERLY WIND WILL COVER THE EASTERN HALF OF HISPANIOLA WITH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE. NORTHERLY AND NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL COVER THE WESTERN HALF OF HISPANIOLA WITH A SEPARATE CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE. THIS SITUATION WILL LAST FOR MUCH OF THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. EASTERLY AND NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL COVER HISPANIOLA FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE WILL DISSIPATE...LEAVING ONLY THE ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE. ...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 16N41W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N TO 22N BETWEEN 34W AND 50W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 15N TO 20N BETWEEN 32W AND 40W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS COVER THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N TO 23N BETWEEN 28W AND 50W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 10N TO THE EAST OF THE 32N64W-TO-23N73W FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A 1035 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 33N35W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 10 FEET FROM 14N TO 24N TO THE EAST OF 50W. EXPECT ALSO WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 FEET ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 25N TO THE EAST OF 53W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT