000 AXNT20 KNHC 221143 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST WED JAN 22 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM A 989 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 37N71W EXTENDS S-SW TO 32N73W TO THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 27N80W. NORTH OF 29N WEST OF THE FRONT...NORTHWESTERLY GALE FORCE CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING AND ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH 22/1200 UTC. IN ADDITION...SOUTHWESTERLY GALE FORCE CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING NORTH OF 29N WITHIN 150 NM EAST OF THE COLD FRONT AND ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH 22/1200 UTC. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/ FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 09N13W TO 05N17W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 05N17W TO 02N22W TO 02N36W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 41W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 01N-04N BETWEEN 23W-36W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A VIGOROUS MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSING THROUGH THE BASE OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND EASTERN SEABOARD WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM OVER THE DELMARVA S TO 31N76W THEN SE TO OVER THE SE GULF NEAR 24N83W. THIS TROUGHING SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE SE GULF NEAR 26N82W SW TO 21N92 THEN SOUTH TO THE MEXICO COAST NEAR 18N93W. THE FRONT REMAINS MOSTLY PRECIPITATION-FREE THIS MORNING HOWEVER A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY UPON PASSAGE. OTHERWISE...A SURFACE RIDGE IS ANCHORED FROM EASTERN TEXAS BY A 1025 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 30N94W S-SW TO A 1027 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER EAST-CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 22N99W. THE RIDGING AS A WHOLE IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF BY LATE WEDNESDAY. THE RIDGE WILL BE REINFORCED ON THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG N-NE WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE BASIN LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... MOSTLY DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING. THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT AREA OF ACTIVE WEATHER IS LOCATED ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN IN ASSOCIATION WITH A STATIONARY FRONT ANALYZED FROM EASTERN CUBA NEAR 20N77W SW TO 13N83W OFF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 180 NM WEST OF THE FRONT AND WITHIN 90 NM EAST OF THE FRONT. OTHERWISE...EAST OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN...SKIES REMAIN RELATIVELY CLEAR THIS MORNING WITHIN MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES...STRONGEST OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. A FEW ISOLATED PASSING LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING FROM 13N-17N BETWEEN 60W-67W...INCLUDING THE LESSER ANTILLES. ...HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE ISLAND AS A STATIONARY FRONT IS ANALYZED TO THE NW FROM SE BAHAMAS NEAR 23N74W SW ACROSS EASTERN CUBA TO 18N80W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS AS THE FRONT REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION. ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS NOTED OVER THE EASTERN U.S. SEABOARD ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM A 989 MB LOW CENTERED OFFSHORE OF THE DELMARVA NEAR 37N71W. THE FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER S-SW TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 27N80W AND INTO THE SE GULF OF MEXICO. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE LOW N OF 28N W OF 68W TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FURTHERMORE...A STATIONARY FRONT LIES TO THE SE OF THE COLD FRONT DRAPED FROM 30N68W SW EASTERN CUBA NEAR 21N76W AND INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT S OF 26N... WHILE N OF 26N SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING BETWEEN 58W-70W. THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO EVENTUALLY MERGE WITH THE STATIONARY FRONT LATER TODAY. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1034 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 34N35W. THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND MOISTURE NOTED E OF 60W...ASIDE FROM THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED STATIONARY FRONT...IS ASSOCIATED WITH A CUT-OFF MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 17N41W. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING FROM 13N-22N BETWEEN 30W-40W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN