000 AXNT20 KNHC 220555 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST WED JAN 22 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM A 998 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 35N78W EXTENDS S-SW TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 29N81W. NORTH OF 28N WEST OF THE FRONT...NORTHWESTERLY GALE FORCE CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING AND ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH 22/1800 UTC. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/ FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 06N10W TO 04N17W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 04N17W TO 03N23W TO 03N37W TO 06N48W TO 05N53W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 01N-04N BETWEEN 21W-34W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A VIGOROUS MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSING THROUGH THE BASE OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM OVER THE CAROLINAS S-SW TO OVER THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR 25N90W. THIS TROUGHING SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE GULF NEAR THE TAMPA BAY REGION SW TO 23N92W THEN S-SW TO THE MEXICO COAST NEAR 18N94W. THE FRONT REMAINS MOSTLY PRECIPITATION-FREE THIS EVENING HOWEVER A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. OTHERWISE...A SURFACE RIDGE IS ANCHORED FROM EASTERN TEXAS BY A 1026 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 32N97W SOUTHWARD TO 22N97W IN THE WESTERN GULF WATERS THAT IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF BY LATE WEDNESDAY. THE RIDGE WILL BE REINFORCED BY THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG N-NE WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE BASIN LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... MOSTLY DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING. THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT AREA OF ACTIVE WEATHER IS LOCATED ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN IN ASSOCIATION WITH A STATIONARY FRONT ANALYZED FROM EASTERN CUBA NEAR 20N76W SW TO 16N84W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 150 NM WEST OF THE FRONT AND WITHIN 120 NM EAST OF THE FRONT. OTHERWISE...EAST OF THE FRONT...SKIES REMAIN RELATIVELY CLEAR THIS EVENING WITHIN MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES...STRONGEST OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. ...HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE ISLAND AS A STATIONARY FRONT IS ANALYZED TO THE NW FROM THE TURKS AND CAICOS NEAR 22N72W SW ACROSS EASTERN CUBA TO 19N80W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS AS THE FRONT REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION. ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS NOTED OVER THE EASTERN U.S. SEABOARD ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM A 998 MB LOW CENTERED ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA NEAR 35N78W. THE FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER S-SW TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 29N81W AND INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE LOW N OF 28N W OF 60W TO THE COLD FRONT BOUNDARY. FURTHERMORE...A STATIONARY FRONT LIES TO THE EAST OF THE COLD FRONT DRAPED FROM 32N56W SW TO THE TURKS AND CAICOS NEAR 22N72W TO EASTERN CUBA AND INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 240 NM WEST OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1035 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 33N35W. THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND MOISTURE NOTED E OF 60W...ASIDE FROM THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED STATIONARY FRONT...IS ASSOCIATED WITH A CUT-OFF MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 16N41W. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING FROM 12N-23N BETWEEN 28W-42W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN