000
AXNT20 KNHC 212324
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
705 PM EST TUE JAN 21 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                        
THE NEXT STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD OFF THE 
EASTERN U.S. COAST TONIGHT BRINGING WITH IT NORTHWESTERLY GALE 
FORCE WINDS WEST OF THE FRONT. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST 
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                                     
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE WEST AFRICAN COAST NEAR 
07N12W TO 06N13W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS 
EXTENDS FROM 06N13W TO 02N20W TO 01N35W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM 01N-05N BETWEEN 21W-35W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...                                               
A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL U.S. 
TO THE WESTERN ATLC WITH BASE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN 
SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT AT 2100 UTC EXTENDS FROM NW FLORIDA 
NEAR 29N82W TO 25N90W TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 19N96W. 
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 50 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT EAST 
OF 93W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IN THE SE GULF AND SW N ATLC 
ENHANCES SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE STRAITS OF 
FLORIDA AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA. 
OTHERWISE...DRY AIR AT THE UPPER AND LOWER LEVELS SUPPORT FAIR 
WEATHER IN THE NORTHERN GULF N OF 25N. OTHERWISE...NORTHERLY-
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW UP TO 25 KT IS WEST OF THE COLD FRONT. THE 
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO EXIT THE BASIN WED MORNING LEAVING 
BEHIND NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE GULF. A NEW COLD FRONT IS 
EXPECTED TO ENTER THE NW BASIN THU NIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...                                                
A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL U.S. 
TO THE WESTERN ATLC WITH BASE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN 
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT FROM EASTERN 
CUBA NEAR 20N77W TO 19N80W TO COASTAL WATERS OF EASTERN HONDURAS 
NEAR 16N84W. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF 
THE BOUNDARY SUPPORTS SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 140 NM EITHER 
SIDE OF THE FRONT AS WELL AS ACROSS THE WINDWARD 
PASSAGE...WESTERN AND CENTRAL HISPANIOLA. EVEN THAT MOSTLY DRY 
AIR AND OVERALL SUBSIDENCE PREVAILS ALOFT ACROSS THE REMAINDER 
BASIN...THE SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW SOME PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL 
MOISTURE THAT ARE ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS NEAR THE VIRGIN AND 
WINDWARD ISLANDS. NORTHERLY WIND OF 10-15 KT ARE WEST OF THE 
FRONT. EAST OF THE FRONT...TRADEWINDS OF 20-25 KT ARE WITHIN 200 
NM FROM THE COAST OF NORTHERN COLOMBIA WHILE TRADES OF 10-15 KT 
DOMINATES ELSEWHERE. BY WED MORNING A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO 
ENTER THE NW BASIN WHILE THE STATIONARY FRONT PREVAILS ACROSS 
EASTERN CUBA AND JAMAICA. ON THU MORNING...THE COLD FRONT IS 
FORECAST TO MERGE THE STATIONARY FRONT AND STALL ACROSS THE 
WINDWARD PASSAGE.

...HISPANIOLA...                                        
CURRENTLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND 
WESTERN ISLAND AS A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT IS ANALYZED 
FROM EASTERN CUBA NEAR 21N75W SW TO COASTAL WATERS OF EASTERN 
HONDURAS NEAR 16N84W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST 
THROUGHOUT THU NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MERGES THE STATIONARY FRONT 
AND THEN STALLS ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...                                               
A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL U.S. 
TO THE WESTERN ATLC WITH BASE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN 
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM 30N56W SW 
TO 24N67W TO 21N74W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A DISSIPATING FRONT 
INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100 NM EAST 
OF THE FRONT N OF 27N AND WITHIN 240 NM WEST OF THE FRONT N OF 
26N. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE WITHIN 160 NM EITHER SIDE OF 
THE FRONT. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE IN THE SW N ATLC WEST 
OF THE FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 11N50W TO 04N52W AND 
GENERATES ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 03N-12N BETWEEN 42W-54W. THE 
REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE 
OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1032 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 
32N35W. OTHERWISE...THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND 
MOISTURE IS NOTED FROM 11N-23N BETWEEN 30W-43W ASSOCIATED WITH A 
CUT-OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 16N41W. GALE FORCE WINDS 
ARE EXPECTED FOR THE SW N ATLC WEST OF A COLD FRONT THAT IS 
FORECAST TO EXIT THE EASTERN COAST TONIGHT. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES 
FOR MORE DETAILS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR