000 AXNT20 KNHC 211148 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST TUE JAN 21 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... THE NEXT STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD OFF THE EASTERN U.S. COAST ON TUESDAY BRINGING WITH IT FORECAST WEST- NORTHWESTERLY GALE FORCE CONDITIONS N OF 30N WEST OF THE FRONT. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 07N13W TO 04N17W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 04N17W TO 01N30W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 41W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-04N BETWEEN 22W-31W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES MOSTLY WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER MUCH OF THE GULF BASIN THIS MORNING...HOWEVER A MID- LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THAT SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM SW LOUISIANA NEAR 30N93W SW TO NEAR BROWNSVILLE TEXAS NEAR 26N97W THEN INLAND ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO. ASIDE FROM THE FRONT WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY N OF 28N...THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS PROVIDING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE GULF THIS MORNING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING FROM 24N-27N BETWEEN 81W-87W WITHIN LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLIES AT THE SURFACE. OTHERWISE...A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE SW NORTH ATLC ALONG 23N/24N TO 94W. CARIBBEAN SEA... A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 24N71W SW TO A BASE NEAR 14N81W. MOSTLY DRY AIR AND OVERALL SUBSIDENCE PREVAILS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROUGHING...HOWEVER A STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS ANALYZED ACROSS EASTERN CUBA TO JAMAICA. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF 18N BETWEEN 71W-79W...AND OVER PORTIONS OF THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM 15N-20N BETWEEN 81W-88W. ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN...UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW RESUMES WITH MOSTLY DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT AND OVERALL FAIR SKIES AT THE SURFACE THIS MORNING. TRADES REMAIN IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE GENERALLY HIGHEST S OF 16N BETWEEN 68W-80W. ...HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE ISLAND AS A STATIONARY FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM THE SE BAHAMAS NEAR 22N73W SW ACROSS EASTERN CUBA TO JAMAICA. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST WITHIN 210 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE SW NORTH ATLC FROM 32N55W SW TO THE SE BAHAMAS NEAR 22N73W TO EASTERN CUBA AND INTO THE NORTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 33N34W. THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND MOISTURE NOTED E OF 60W IS ASSOCIATED WITH A CUT- OFF MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 17N43W. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING FROM 10N-23N BETWEEN 32W-43W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN