000 AXNT20 KNHC 210542 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST TUE JAN 21 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... THE NEXT STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD OFF THE EASTERN U.S. COAST ON TUESDAY BRINGING WITH IT FORECAST WEST- NORTHWESTERLY GALE FORCE CONDITIONS N OF 28N WEST OF THE FRONT. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 07N12W TO 06N16W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N16W TO 02N21W TO 02N37W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 48W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-04N BETWEEN 21W-28W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES MOSTLY WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER MUCH OF THE GULF BASIN THIS EVENING BETWEEN BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER WESTERN MEXICO. THIS UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS PROVIDING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE GULF WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING N OF 24N E OF 87W WITHIN LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLIES AT THE SURFACE. OTHERWISE...A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE SW NORTH ATLC ALONG 24N TO 90W. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COAST BY TUESDAY MORNING. CARIBBEAN SEA... A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 23N75W SW TO A BASE OVER EASTERN HONDURAS AND NORTHERN NICARAGUA NEAR 14N85W. MOSTLY DRY AIR AND OVERALL SUBSIDENCE PREVAILS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROUGHING...HOWEVER A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS ANALYZED FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE NEAR 20N74W TO JAMAICA TO THE SOUTHERN NICARAGUA COAST NEAR 11N83W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT IS GENERATING POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN AND INLAND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA THIS EVENING. TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT...UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW RESUMES OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH MOSTLY DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT AND OVERALL FAIR SKIES AT THE SURFACE FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. TRADES REMAIN IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE GENERALLY HIGHEST S OF 16N BETWEEN 68W-80W. ...HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE ISLAND AS A STATIONARY FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS NEAR 21N71W SW THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO JAMAICA. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND SW NORTH ATLC. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM 32N68W SW TO THE NW BAHAMAS TO THE MIDDLE FLORIDA KEYS NEAR 25N81W. THE FRONT REMAINS RELATIVELY PRECIPITATION-FREE THIS EVENING...HOWEVER A SUBTLE WIND SHIFT AND STRONGER W-NW WINDS TO THE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY WAS INDICATED ON EARLIER SCATTEROMETER DATA. FARTHER EAST...A STATIONARY FRONT IS DRAPED ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE SW NORTH ATLC FROM 32N55W SW TO THE TURKS AND CAICOS NEAR 21N71W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 32N33W. THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND MOISTURE NOTED E OF 60W IS ASSOCIATED WITH A CUT- OFF MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 18N43W. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING FROM 08N-22N BETWEEN 32W-43W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN