000 AXNT20 KNHC 202353 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST MON JAN 20 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE EASTERN U.S. COAST ON TUESDAY NIGHT GENERATING WESTERLY-NORTHWESTERLY GALE FORCE WINDS WEST OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY. GALE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE WED MORNING. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF LIBERIA AFRICA NEAR 05N09W TO 03N14W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 03N14W TO 02N30W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 01S45W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 01N-04N BETWEEN 17W-28W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS EXTENDING ALONG THE EASTERN U.S. TO A BASE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC THAT DISSIPATES ACROSS THE SE GULF ALONG 25N80W TO 24N85W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 50 NM OF THE DISSIPATING BOUNDARY. AT THE SURFACE...THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER HAS DISSIPATED. HOWEVER...ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IN THE RANGE OF 5-15 KT REMAINS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER MEXICO IS ADVECTING SOME MOISTURE TO THE NE BASIN N OF 26N WHICH IS SUPPORTING BROKEN SKIES. OTHERWISE...DRY AIR AT THE UPPER AND LOWER LEVELS MAINTAIN FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE REMAINDER BASIN. A COLD FRONT MOSTLY VOID OF PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE NW WATERS BY TUE MORNING AND EXIT THE SE GULF WED MORNING. NORTHERLY WIND FLOW UP TO 30 KT WILL BUILD WEST OF THE FRONT THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS EXTENDING ALONG THE EASTERN U.S. TO A BASE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC THAT ENTERS THE BASIN BY EASTERN CUBA NEAR 20N74W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A DISSIPATING BOUNDARY ALONG 16N80W TO COASTAL WATERS OF COSTA RICA NEAR 10N82W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY N OF 17N AS WELL AS FROM 10N-18N BETWEEN 79W-85W. EAST OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT SUPPORTS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...A RIDGE GENERATES DIFFLUENCE ACROSS THE N-NE CARIBBEAN TO SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE MONA PASSAGE AND HISPANIOLA. IN TERMS OF WIND...NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OF 10-20 KT ARE WEST OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...TRADEWINDS UP TO 25 KT ARE WITHIN 200 NM OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WHILE TRADES UP TO 15 KT DOMINATE THE REMAINDER BASIN. EXCEPT FOR THE REGIONS MENTIONED...FAIR WEATHER IS ELSEWHERE BEING SUPPORTED BY DRY AIR IN THE UPPER AND LOWER LEVELS. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY TUE MORNING BUT REMNANT CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH WED EVENING. HISPANIOLA... PRESENTLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE MONA PASSAGE BEING SUPPORTED BY DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ACROSS HISPANIOLA ASSOCIATED WITH A STATIONARY FRONT THAT MOVE ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. DEEP CONVECTION IS BEING SUPPRESSED BY DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE. SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE ACROSS THE ISLAND THROUGHOUT TUE MORNING AND THEN RESUME WED NIGHT AS A NEW FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO BRUSH THE NORTHERN ISLAND. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS EXTENDING ALONG THE EASTERN U.S. TO A BASE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SUPPORTS A PAIR OF FRONTS OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC. THE LEADING FRONT IS ANALYZED AS A STATIONARY FRONT FROM 30N57W SW TO 23N67W TO EASTERN CUBA NEAR 19N74W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A DISSIPATING BOUNDARY. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 140 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT N OF 22N AS WELL AS FROM 20N-24N BETWEEN 70W-77W. THE SECOND BOUNDARY IS ANALYZED AS A COLD FRONT FROM 30N70W TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS NEAR 26N77W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A DISSIPATING FRONT TOWARDS THE SE GULF. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 50 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 06N-21N BETWEEN 31W-42W. OTHERWISE...A BROAD RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1032 MB HIGH COVERS THE REMAINDER BASIN AND SUPPORTS FAIR WEATHER. A NEW COLD FRONT WILL BE ENTERING THE SW N ATLC BY TUE NIGHT GENERATING GALE FORCE WINDS. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ NR