000 AXNT20 KNHC 201737 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST MON JAN 20 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD OFF THE EASTERN U.S. COAST ON TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING WITH IT FORECAST NORTHWESTERLY GALE FORCE WINDS N OF 30N WITHIN 180 NM WEST OF FRONT. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... A MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM LIBERIA AT 06N10W TO 03N15W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 03N15W TO 02N22W TO 02N35W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 01S46W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N- 05N BETWEEN 12W-16W...AND FROM 01N-04N BETWEEN 20W-27W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 1500 UTC... A 1023 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 24N88W. 10-15 KT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE WITHIN 360 NM OF THE HIGH CENTER. FURTHER E...A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM SOUTH FLORIDA NEAR 27N80W TO THE SE GULF AT 25N85W. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF KEY WEST FLORIDA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 80W. THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SUPPORTING THE COLD FRONT. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER S TEXAS AND THE NW GULF. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF AND FLORIDA. A 70-90 KT JETSTREAM EXTENDS FROM SE TEXAS TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND CONTINUES INTO THE W ATLANTIC. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO EXIT THE GULF AND BE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. ALSO EXPECT ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO BE OVER THE NW GULF MOVING E AND MOSTLY VOID OF PRECIPITATION. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... AS OF 1500 UTC...THE REMNANTS OF A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO JAMAICA TO THE COAST OF NICARAGUA NEAR 12N84W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THIS LINE. 20 KT NE WINDS ARE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN NW OF THIS LINE. 15-25 KT TRADE WINDS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF NORTH COLOMBIA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE BELIZE...GUATEMALA... HONDURAS...NICARAGUA ...COSTA RICA...AND W PANAMA...W OF 80W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ALONG 60W. VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR SHOWERS TO PERSIST OVER THE SAME GENERAL AREAS. HISPANIOLA... PRESENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE WINDWWARD PASSAGE ASSOCIATED WITH A STATIONARY FRONT. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER HISPANIOLA. UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IS ALSO SUPPRESSING ALL CONVECTION. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR SOME SHOWERS TO DRIFT OVER THE ISLAND. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AS OF 1500 UTC...A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 30N73W TO S FLORIDA AT 27N80W MOSTLY VOID OF PRECIPITATION. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 30N58W TO 25N65W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 25N65W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THESE FRONTS. A LARGE 1032 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 32N35W. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 17N45W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE CENTER IS PRODUCING BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS FROM 10N-25N BETWEEN 32W-43W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONTAL SYSTEM FROM 30N58W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO BECOME ALL STATIONARY WITH SHOWERS. ALSO EXPECT THE OTHER COLD FRONT TO PASS OVER THE N BAHAMAS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA