000 AXNT20 KNHC 201141 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST MON JAN 20 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... THE NEXT STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD OFF THE EASTERN U.S. COAST ON TUESDAY BRINGING WITH IT FORECAST WESTERLY GALE FORCE CONDITIONS N OF 30N WITHIN 180 NM WEST OF THE FRONT. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 07N12W TO 05N16W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 05N16W TO 02N22W TO 02N33W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 43W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-06N BETWEEN 08W-13W...AND FROM 01N-07N BETWEEN 20W-32W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND FLORIDA PENINSULA THIS MORNING THAT SUPPORTS A RELATIVELY WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE TAMPA BAY AREA OF FLORIDA NEAR 28N83W SW TO 25N92W. OVERALL...THE FRONT REMAINS FAIRLY PRECIPITATION-FREE...WITH A SUBTLE WIND SHIFT NOTED ON RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA. OTHERWISE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 23N93W INFLUENCES THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. THE RIDGING WILL SLIDE EASTWARD THROUGH LATE MONDAY WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT FORECAST TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COAST EARLY TUESDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INFLUENCES MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN THIS MORNING WITH THE BASE OF A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS NOTED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. THIS TROUGHING SUPPORTS A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE SW TO JAMAICA TO 13N82W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT S OF 17N. OTHERWISE...A SURFACE RIDGE INFLUENCES THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN AND YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES AND NE WINDS...AND N-NE TRADES PERSIST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN EAST OF THE FRONT WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS GENERALLY S OF 16N BETWEEN 68W-83W. ...HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE ISLAND AS A STATIONARY FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS NEAR 22N72W SW THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO JAMAICA. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT FOR MONDAY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THE OVERALL TROUGHING ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 36N66W TO A BASE NEAR 26N73W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM 32N74W SW TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 29N81W. THE FRONT REMAINS RELATIVELY PRECIPITATION-FREE THIS MORNING...HOWEVER A SUBTLE WIND SHIFT IS INDICATED ON EARLIER OVERNIGHT SCATTEROMETER DATA. FARTHER EAST...A STATIONARY FRONT IS DRAPED ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE SW NORTH ATLC FROM 32N58W SW TO THE TURKS AND CAICOS NEAR 22N72W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1032 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 32N35W. THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND MOISTURE NOTED E OF 60W IS ASSOCIATED WITH A CUT- OFF MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 17N45W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING FROM 14N-22N BETWEEN 35W-47W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN