000
AXNT20 KNHC 192352
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SUN JAN 19 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...                                
     
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 05N09W TO 
04N11W AND THEN CONTINUES AS THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE 
WITH THE AXIS THROUGH 03N30W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 03S44W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS LOCATED WITHIN 45 NM EITHER 
SIDE OF A LINE FROM 04N14W TO 03N24W TO 05N30W.  

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF WITH 
THE AXIS EXTENDING ALONG 88W WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING 
STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER THE ENTIRE REGION. AT THE SURFACE A COLD 
FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 30.5N83W 
TO 27N90W TO THE LOWER TEXAS COAST AND IS MARKED BY A BAND OF 
CLOUDINESS 60 TO 90 NAUTICAL MILES WIDE. WINDS ALOFT ARE 
FORECAST TO BE IN EXCESS OF 100 KNOTS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF IN 
THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MENTIONED ABOVE IN THE GULF OF 
MEXICO SECTION EXTENDS SOUTHWARD INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN COVERING 
THE AREA N OF 16N W OF 75W. BROAD RIDGING ALOFT COVERS THE 
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. AT THE SURFACE A STATIONARY FRONT IS 
LOCATED FROM EASTERN CUBA NEAR 21N77W TO 19N80W TO THE EASTERN 
TIP OF HONDURAS TO 13N83W. THE FRONT IS MARKED BY A BAND OF 
CLOUDS 5 TO 7 DEGREES WIDE AND CENTERED ALONG A LINE FROM 21N77W 
TO 18N81W TO 15N85W. A SMALL AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS IS LOCATED 
NEAR 14N81.5W. MODERATE WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT ARE FORECAST TO 
COVER THE ENTIRE BASIN IN 48 HOURS.

HISPANIOLA...

BROKEN LOW/MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE LOCATED OVER THE INTERIOR 
SECTIONS OF HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. CLOUDINESS IS 
FORECAST TO INCREASE OVER HAITI AS THE FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE 
WEST.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THE MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MENTIONED ABOVE IN THE GULF OF 
MEXICO AND CARIBBEAN SECTIONS EXTENDS EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC 
COVERING THE AREA N OF 20N W OF 68W. A SUBTROPICAL JET EXTENDS 
FROM WESTERN CUBA NEAR 23N80W TO 27N73W THROUGH 32N68W WITH 
SPEEDS APPROACHING 100 KNOTS. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS THROUGH 
32N59W TO 21N77W. A COLD FRONT IS LOCATED ABOUT 60 NAUTICAL 
MILES BEHIND THE STATIONARY FRONT. BROKEN LAYERED CLOUDS ARE IN 
A 7 TO 8 DEGREE WIDE BAND CENTERED ALONG A LINE FROM 32N63W TO 
22N75W. A RIDGE AXIS ALOFT IS LOCATED FROM NEAR 18N63W TO 
30N50W. IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC A WELL-DEFINED MIDDLE/UPPER 
LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 18N45W AND IS NEARLY 
STATIONARY. BROKEN LAYERED CLOUDS ARE LOCATED FROM 13N TO 23N 
BETWEEN 35W AND 45W. IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC A MIDDLE/UPPER 
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS LOCATED ALONG 30W FROM 05N TO 25N.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
CAB