000 AXNT20 KNHC 191732 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST SUN JAN 19 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN LIBERIA AT 05N08W TO 03N30W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 02S44W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-05N BETWEEN 10W-27W. ...AND FROM 01N-03N BETWEEN 34W-38W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 1500 UTC...A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 31N85W TO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AT 29N90W TO TO THE SOUTH TEXAS COAST NEAR CORPUS CHRISTIE AT 28N97W. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER N FLORIDA AND THE NE GULF N OF 28N E OF 85W. 10-15 KT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE N OF THE FRONT. VARIABLE 5-10 KT WINDS ARE S OF THE FRONT. A 1026 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER S FLORIDA NEAR 26N81W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH AXIS ALONG 85W. THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING RAPIDLY E AND IS SUPPORTING THE COLD FRONT. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE ENTIRE GULF. A 90-110 KT JETSTREAM EXTENDS FROM THE NE GULF AND N FLORIDA AND CONTINUES INTO THE W ATLANTIC. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO EXIT THE GULF AND BE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. ALSO EXPECT ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO BE OVER CENTRAL TEXAS MOVING E AND MOSTLY VOID OF PRECIPITATION. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... AS OF 1500 UTC...THE TAIL END OF A REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS OVER CEBNTRAL CUBA FROM 22N78W TO 20N80W. IN ADDITION... A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM E CUBA AT 21N76W TO S OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AT 19N80W TO E HONDURAS AT 15N83W TO THE COAST OF NICARAGUA AT 13N83W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE FRONTS. 20 KT NE WINDS ARE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN NW OF THE FRONTS. 15-25 KT TRADE WINDS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF NORTH COLOMBIA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE BELIZE...GUATEMALA... HONDURAS...COSTA RICA...AND W PANAMA...W OF 80W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ALONG 62W. VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE REINFORCING COLD FRONT TO MERGE WITH THE STATIONARY FRONT WITH SHOWERS. HISPANIOLA... PRESENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE WINDWWARD PASSAGE ASSOCIATED WITH A STATIONARY FRONT. FAIR WEATHER IS OVER HISPANIOLA. UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IS ALSO SUPPRESSING ALL CONVECTION. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR SOME SHOWERS TO DRIFT OVER HAITI. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AS OF 1500 UTC...A REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 30N66W TO CENTRAL CUBA AT 22N78W. A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 30N63W TO E CUBA AT 21N76W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE FRONTS. A LARGE 1031 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 32N37W. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 17N46W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE CENTER IS PRODUCING BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS FROM 13N-23N BETWEEN 35W-45W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO NEAR THE LOW CENTER FROM 17N-20N BETWEEN 43W-46W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS FOR THE REINFORCING COLD FRONT TO MERGE WITH THE STATIONARY FRONT. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE STATIONARY FRONT TO EXTEND FROM 30N61W TO E CUBA WITH SHOWERS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA