000 AXNT20 KNHC 191121 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST SUN JAN 19 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE ITCZ PASSES BEGINS AT COASTAL LIBERIA NEAR 5N9W TO 0N39W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN 60 NM OF AXIS EAST OF 25W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... A 1024 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 27N85W. SCATTERED SHOWERS EXIST IN A LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUD BAND WHICH IS SOUTH A COUPLE HUNDRED NM OF TEXAS TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. WHILE THERE IS NO OBVIOUS SURFACE FEATURE CONNECTED TO THESE CLOUDS/SHOWERS...A STRONG MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PLUNGING SOUTHWARD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. MAY BE SUPPORTING IT. ADDITIONALLY...TWO LINES OF CONVECTION HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE COAST FROM LOUISIANA TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...BOTH MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST. THE LEADING LINE...MORE RAGGED...MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH A PRE- FRONTAL TROUGH. THE SECOND LINE...A BIT MORE INLAND...IS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT ITSELF. THE SURFACE WINDS IN THE GULF ARE QUITE WEAK...20 KT OR LESS...AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE GULF IS SLIGHT. THE FORECAST CALLS FOR THE JUST- INLAND COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF/FLORIDA PENINSULA BY TONIGHT. HOWEVER...BECAUSE THERE IS NO OPPORTUNITY FOR THE RETURN FLOW TO SET UP SIGNIFICANTLY...THE CHANCE FOR DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEW FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS LOW. ...THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN... TWO FRONTAL BOUNDARIES ARE ACTIVE THIS EVENING...A LEADING COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 32N60W SOUTHWESTWARD BECOMING A STATIONARY FRONT AT 24N70W TO EASTERN CUBA AND A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 32N67W SOUTHWESTWARD TO CENTRAL CUBA. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH EITHER FEATURE...THOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE LOCATED WITHIN 180 NM WEST OF THE LEADING FRONT. SCATTEROMETERS AND BUOYS INDICATES THAT THE SURFACE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES HAVE DROPPED TO 20 KT OR WEAKER. THE FORECAST CALLS FOR THE TWO FRONTS TO MERGE AND BE STATIONARY BY SUNDAY NIGHT EXTENDING FROM 32N61W SOUTHWESTWARD TO HISPANIOLA. MOIST CONVERGENT SOUTHERLY FLOW REACHING THE MERGED FRONTS SHOULD CONTINUE THE LIKELIHOOD OF RAINFALL...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE DEEP CONVECTION NORTH OF 25N...OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. SOME OF THESE RAINS COULD AFFECT THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN BAHAMAS. ...THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN... A LARGE 1029 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED AT 32N37W DOMINATES THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN WITH RIDGING EXTENDING WEST- SOUTHWESTWARD TO 25N62W AND SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE WEST AFRICAN COAST AT 22N17W. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS OCCURRING UNDER THE PRIMARILY SUBSIDENT CONDITIONS. A VIGOROUS UPPER- TO MID-LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED AT 20N45W WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO 7N50W. THE LOW/TROUGH IS PROMOTING MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS. HOWEVER...DESPITE PROMINENT TURNING OBSERVED IN THE SATELLITE IMAGERY...THE FEATURE IS NOT AT THE SURFACE AS SEEN FROM NUMEROUS SCATTEROMETER PASSES TODAY AS WELL AS SHIP BATFR19... WHICH ALL HAVE SHOWN UNIDIRECTIONAL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM EASTERN CUBA TO THE COAST OF NICARAGUA. ADDITIONALLY...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL CUBA SOUTHWESTWARD TO 20N82W. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS OCCURRING IN ASSOCIATION WITH EITHER FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 180 NM WEST OF THE FRONT INCLUDING OVER EASTERN CUBA...JAMAICA...NICARAGUA...HONDURAS...AND BELIZE. THE RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA IS ENHANCED BY UPSLOPE FLOW INDUCED BY THE 15-20 KT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS IMPACTING THE COAST. THE TYPICAL ACCELERATED EASTERLY TRADES NORTH OF COLOMBIA ARE ALSO IN PLACE...REACHING 25-30 KT. THE FORECAST CALLS FOR THE TWO FRONTS TO MERGE AND BECOME STATIONARY FROM HISPANIOLA SOUTHWESTWARD TO 16N77W TONIGHT. CONTINUED SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 180 NM WEST OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AS WELL AS EAST-FACING SLOPES OF NICARAGUA... HONDURAS...AND BELIZE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY. THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC DOES NOT EXTEND INTO THE CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING. ...HISPANIOLA... A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM EASTERN CUBA TO THE COAST OF NICARAGUA. NO SHOWER ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY AFFECTING HISPANIOLA. THE FORECAST CALLS FOR THE FRONT TO MERGE WITH COLD FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL CUBA AND BECOME STATIONARY FROM HISPANIOLA SOUTHWESTWARD TO 16N77W TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 180 NM WEST OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY INCLUDING HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ LANDSEA