000 AXNT20 KNHC 190606 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST SUN JAN 19 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL LIBERIA NEAR 5N09W TO 3N19W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES AT THAT POINT TO 0N36W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN 60 NM OF ITCZ FROM 19W TO 22W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... A 1024 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 28N86W WITH THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM WESTERN CUBA TO JUST NORTH OF THE YUCATAN OF MEXICO. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS NOT PRODUCING ANY DEEP CONVECTION...THOUGH ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FEATURE. SCATTERED SHOWERS ALSO EXISTS IN A LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUD BAND WHICH IS SOUTH OF LOUISIANA AND TEXAS. WHILE THERE IS NO OBVIOUS SURFACE FEATURE CONNECTED TO THESE CLOUDS/SHOWERS...A STRONG MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PLUNGING SOUTHWARD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. MAY BE SUPPORTING IT. THE SURFACE WINDS IN THE GULF ARE QUITE WEAK...20 KT OR LESS...THROUGHOUT AS THE FORCING BEHIND THE CURRENT FRONT IS NOT STRONG. THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A NEW FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF/FLORIDA PENINSULA BY SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...BECAUSE THERE IS NO OPPORTUNITY FOR THE RETURN FLOW TO SET UP SIGNIFICANTLY...THE CHANCE FOR DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEW FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS MINIMAL. ...THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN... TWO FRONTAL BOUNDARIES ARE ACTIVE THIS EVENING...A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM 32N67W SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TO EASTERN CUBA AND A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 32N69W SOUTHWESTWARD TO WESTERN CUBA. IT DOES APPEAR IN THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS THAT THE STATIONARY FRONT MAY...ONCE AGAIN...BECOMING PROGRESSIVE AND MOVING EASTWARD. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH EITHER FEATURE...THOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE LOCATED WITHIN 180 NM WEST OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. THE 0202Z ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS INDICATES THAT THE SURFACE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES IS DROPPING TO 20 KT OR WEAKER. THE FORECAST CALLS FOR THE TWO FRONTS TO MERGE AND BE STATIONARY BY SUNDAY NIGHT EXTENDING FROM 32N61W SOUTHWESTWARD TO HISPANIOLA. MOIST CONVERGENT SOUTHERLY FLOW REACHING THE MERGED FRONTS SHOULD CONTINUE THE LIKELIHOOD OF RAINFALL...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE DEEP CONVECTION NORTH OF 25N...OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. SOME OF THESE RAINS COULD AFFECT THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN BAHAMAS. ...THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN... A LARGE 1031 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED AT 32N37W DOMINATES THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN WITH RIDGING EXTENDING WEST- SOUTHWESTWARD TO 23N65W AND SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE WEST AFRICAN COAST AT 22N17W. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS OCCURRING UNDER PRIMARILY SUBSIDENT CONDITIONS. A VIGOROUS UPPER- TO MID-LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED AT 21N45W WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO 7N50W. THE LOW/TROUGH IS PROMOTING MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS. HOWEVER...DESPITE PROMINENT TURNING OBSERVED IN THE SATELLITE IMAGERY...THE FEATURE IS NOT AT THE SURFACE AS SEEN FROM NUMEROUS SCATTEROMETER PASSES TODAY AS WELL AS SHIP BATFR19 WHICH ALL HAVE SHOWN UNIDIRECTIONAL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM EASTERN CUBA TO JAMAICA TO THE COAST OF NICARAGUA. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS OCCURRING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 180 NM WEST OF THE FRONT INCLUDING OVER EASTERN CUBA...JAMAICA...NICARAGUA...HONDURAS...AND BELIZE. THE RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA IS ENHANCED BY UPSLOPE FLOW INDUCED BY THE 20-25 KT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS IMPACTING THE COAST. THE TYPICAL ACCELERATED EASTERLY TRADES NORTH OF COLOMBIA ARE ALSO IN PLACE...REACHING 25-30 KT. THE FORECAST CALLS FOR THE FRONT TO MERGE WITH COLD FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER CUBA AND BECOME STATIONARY FROM HISPANIOLA SOUTHWESTWARD TO 16N77W. CONTINUED SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 180 NM WEST OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AS WELL AS EAST-FACING SLOPES OF NICARAGUA...HONDURAS...AND BELIZE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY. THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC IS ALONG 9N FROM COSTA RICA TO COLOMBIA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS RELATED DIRECTLY TO THE MONSOON TROUGH IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. ...HISPANIOLA... A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM EASTERN CUBA TO JAMAICA TO THE COAST OF NICARAGUA. NO SHOWER ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY AFFECTING HISPANIOLA. THE FORECAST CALLS FOR THE FRONT TO MERGE WITH COLD FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER CUBA AND BECOME STATIONARY FROM HISPANIOLA SOUTHWESTWARD TO 16N77W. CONTINUED SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 180 NM WEST OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY INCLUDING HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ LANDSEA