000 AXNT20 KNHC 190003 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST SAT JAN 18 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL LIBERIA NEAR 6N10W TO 3N21W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 3N21W TO 2N34W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 44W...REACHING COASTAL BRAZIL NEAR 1S47W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 2N TO 5N BETWEEN 12W AND 23W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE 10N13W 9N20W 8N30W 5N40W 3N50W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF 70W...AND THE GULF OF MEXICO. MORE THAN ONE TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THIS AREA AT THE PRESENT TIME. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 32N71W...TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS NEAR 27N78W...ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS...TO 23N86W IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO 25N95W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...AS DEPICTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTHWEST AND WEST OF THE FRONT...AND THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND/OR IN THE GULF OF MEXICO BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. A 1027 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 29N88W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE NORTH OF THE COLD FRONT. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 87W/88W... LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING OBSERVED AT THE FOLLOWING ICAO STATIONS...KGVX...KVAF...KHQI...KEHC AT 5500 FEET...KCRH AT 5000 FEET. MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING OBSERVED AT THE FOLLOWING ICAO STATIONS...KGUL...KHQI...KGBK...KVBS...AND KSPR. KEIR IS REPORTING CLEARING SKIES AFTER REPORTING A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING. CLEAR SKIES/FAIR SKIES ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET. FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM TEXAS TO FLORIDA... LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING OBSERVED IN TEXAS IN...ANGLETON- LAKE JACKSON...GALVESTON...IN THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA...RANGING FROM 4000 FEET TO 6000 FEET. THE MIDDLE LEVEL AND HIGH LEVEL CEILINGS APPEAR TO BREAKING UP AT THE NAVAL AIR STATION IN KEY WEST BASED ON THE LAST OBSERVATION. CLEAR SKIES/FAIR SKIES ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET. FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA... INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A SHALLOW COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N64W JUST TO THE EAST OF BERMUDA...TO 26N70W TO 23N73W NEAR THE ACKLINS ISLANDS AND MAYAGUANA IN THE BAHAMAS. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 23N73W...ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CUBA NEAR 20N76W...TO 18N80W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO THE COASTS OF EASTERN HONDURAS AND NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA...TO THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF COSTA RICA. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 30N BETWEEN 60W AND 67W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ARE ELSEWHERE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITHIN 260 NM TO 360 NM TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N58W 24N70W 15N82W...TO THE SOUTH OF 15N TO THE WEST OF 82W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND ELSEWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE SOUTH OF 20N TO THE WEST OF 80W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES...FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 18/1200 UTC... ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.16 IN BERMUDA. ...THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...AS DEPICTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...IN LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS...TO THE EAST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA STATIONARY FRONT. 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES...FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 18/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...ARE 0.17 IN TRINIDAD...AND 0.12 IN MONTEGO BAY. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 6N BETWEEN 76W IN COLOMBIA BEYOND 83W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS RELATED DIRECTLY TO THE MONSOON TROUGH IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC... AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...A STATIONARY FRONT FROM 21N75W TO 15N83W. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT. A SECOND AREA OF INTEREST CONSISTS OF NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS...EXCEPT 25 TO 30 KNOTS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 11 FEET...THE COMPARATIVELY HIGHEST SEAS WILL BE NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA... FROM 11N TO 16N BETWEEN 68W AND 78W. ...HISPANIOLA... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW CROSSES THE AREA. A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA THROUGH 32N54W TO 24N65W 16N65W AND 10N66W. ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SKY CONDITIONS AND CURRENT WEATHER FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS COVER SANTO DOMINGO AND LA ROMANA. FEW LOW CLOUDS COVER BARAHONA...PUNTA CANA... SANTIAGO...AND PUERTO PLATA. FEW LOW CLOUDS COVER PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT A RIDGE WILL START THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD ALONG 20N64W TO 15N70W...INTO NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA. SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA DURING THE ENTIRE 48 HOUR PERIOD. THE RIDGE WILL END UP ALONG 23N58W 12N60W. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT A RIDGE WILL START THE 48-HOUR FORECAST FROM A 20N65W ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...AND CONTINUE TO 15N73W AND 15N79W. SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA DURING THE ENTIRE 48 HOUR PERIOD. THE LAST 12 HOURS OF SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL BE RELATED TO A TROUGH THAT IS MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEST CENTRAL AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...TO THE EAST OF 70W. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE WILL PASS THROUGH 18N55W TO 16N63W TO 17N71W...ACROSS HISPANIOLA INTO SOUTHEASTERN CUBA. SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS. AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL DEVELOP ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA BY 30 HOURS INTO THE FORECAST PERIOD. ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA UNTIL THE END OF THE 48 HOUR PERIOD. A STATIONARY FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE PASSING THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AT 24 HOURS AT 19/1200 UTC...AND AT 48 HOURS AT 20/1200 UTC. ...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N45W TO A 24N47W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER... TO 14N47W 8N52W AND 7N56W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 6N BETWEEN 38W AND 55W. SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS COVER THE AREA FROM 7N TO 30N BETWEEN 30W AND 50W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CUTS THROUGH ALGERIA TO MAURITANIA TO SOUTHERN SENEGAL/GUINEA-BISSAU. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1029 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 33N38W TO 30N43W 25N62W...TO THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND GREAT INAGUA. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 10N TO THE EAST OF THE 32N64W 23N73W 18N80W FRONTAL BOUNDARY. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...A COLD FRONT 31N72W 25N80W. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 12 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT. A SECOND COLD FRONT 31N65W 21N75W. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE EAST OF THE SECOND FRONT TO 63W. A SECOND AREA OF INTEREST CONSISTS OF NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 9 TO 10 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 18N TO THE EAST OF 52W. EXPECT NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 9 TO 10 FEET FROM 18N TO 25N TO THE EAST OF 40W. EXPECT ALSO WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LINE FROM 28N35WW TO 21N50W TO 16N61W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT