000 AXNT20 KNHC 181742 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST SAT JAN 18 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE WEST AFRICAN COAST NEAR 06N10W TO 03N21W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 03N21W TO 03N32W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 01S47W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-6N BETWEEN 04W- 20W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 21W- 45W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 1500 UTC...A 1028 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER NEAR 29N90W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER AND 10 KT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM S FLORIDA AT 26.5N80W TO THE SE GULF AT 24N84W TO THE W GULF AT 24N92W TO 26N96W. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THE FRONT IS MAINLY VOID OF PRECIPITATION. PRESENTLY SOUTH FLORIDA IS 20 DEGREES WARMER THAN NORTH FLORIDA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND THE GULF OF MEXICO SUPPORTING THE COLD FRONT. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE ENTIRE GULF. A 90-110 KT JETSTREAM EXTENDS FROM THE SW GULF TO CENTRAL FLORIDA. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO EXIT THE GULF. ALSO EXPECT ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO S TEXAS AGAIN MOSTLY VOID OF PRECIPITATION. CARIBBEAN SEA... AS OF 1500 UTC...A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM E CUBA AT 21N76W TO NEAR HONDURAS AT 16N83W TO NEAR S NICARAGUA AT 11N83W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE FRONT TO INCLUDE THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. 20 KT N WINDS ARE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN NW OF THE FRONT. 15-25 KT TRADE WINDS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF NORTH COLOMBIA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE BELIZE...GUATEMALA... HONDURAS...NICARAGUA...COSTA RICA...AND W PANAMA...W OF 80W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ALONG 67W. VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR A COLD FRONT TO MERGE WITH THE STATIONARY FRONT AND EXTEND FROM E CUBA TO E HONDURAS WITH SHOWERS. ...HISPANIOLA... PRESENTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER HISPANIOLA. UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IS ALSO SUPPRESSING ALL CONVECTION. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR SHOWERS TO REMAIN OVER E CUBA DUE TO THE STATIONARY FRONT. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AS OF 1500 UTC...A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 30N76W. TO S FLORIDA AT 26.5N80W MOSTLY VOID OF PRECIPITATION. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 30N66W TO THE S BAHAMAS AT 23N73W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO E CUBA AT 21N75W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE FRONT. A LARGE 1033 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 34N38W. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 25N47W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE CENTER IS PRODUCING BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS FROM 10N-30N BETWEEN 30W-45W. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR ONE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM 30N64W TO E CUBA WITH SHOWERS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA